Politics Spanish general elections (yes, again...)

[Mokordo]

Fourth election in 4 years, after the incapacity of the most voted party , Psoe (moderated left-socialdemocracy), to get partners to form majority in the parlament and create a coallition governement.

Surveys basically indicate that any party will obtain majority enough in the parlament, and probably any of the blocks (left and right) will not even obatin majority with alliances. Only possible majority would come if two main parties join their seats, but now seems to be quite difficult this happens.

Votings trends according to surveys say : soe(moderate left) would win, decreasing in number of seats, but few; Pp (moderate right), second most voted, would increase the number of seats; Vox(far right), would increase substantially the number of votes and seats and probably would be the third most voted party; Podemos (far left), less seats tahn before election; Ciudadanos (center), would decrease significantly; Más País (left) , an split/excision of Podemos, may obtain for first time some seats. After these, they are more little parties, generally regional parties, with a total of aprox. 40 seats in the parlament, taht basically would mantain their number of seats, may be catalan far left partie and separatist Cup, will have ine more.

Well, this Sunday we have General elections again. And who knows, maybe in a year we will have another General elections, because all will be remain the same after this.

Spanish election: Five face off in race to run Spain

Can any of the country's political leaders win a majority to end months of political deadlock?

www.bbc.com

Vox and Catalonia dominate the end of the election campaign in Spain

Issues like the economic slowdown have been dropped as candidates vie for undecided voters ahead of the vote on November 10

elpais.com

I expect not to bore you a lot with this issue. My feelings and general perception of people around me , are that all we are quite bored .

 

[muck]

Why yes, the good old principle of making the people vote until the results are deemed agreeable. I see it's alive and kicking.

 

[NZM305]

I honestly feel that parties should be dropped from politics. You should just vote for some one to represent your local area and they toddle off to what ever style of parliment you have and they work together to make the lives of the people better.

 

[riderboy]

Why yes, the good old principle of making the people vote until the results are deemed agreeable. I see it's alive and kicking.

Let's face it. If voting really mattered, they wouldn't let us do it.

 

[muck]

I honestly feel that parties should be dropped from politics. You should just vote for some one to represent your local area and they toddle off to what ever style of parliment you have and they work together to make the lives of the people better.

Parties are an inevitable byproduct of politics. Where their emergence is suppressed, they will emerge informally all the same, simply on the account that our interests are aligned with some people's interests more than with others. If you're a businessman, for example, you're more likely to band together with other businessmen than with communists.

Let's face it. If voting really mattered, they wouldn't let us do it.

I daresay the election of Donald Trump or the Brexit referendum's outcome (to name only a few examples) show that voting does matter.

 

[NZM305]

Parties are an inevitable byproduct of politics. Where their emergence is suppressed, they will emerge informally all the same, simply on the account that our interests are aligned with some people's interests more than with others. If you're a businessman, for example, you're more likely to band together with other businessmen than with communists.

I daresay the election of Donald Trump or the Brexit referendum's outcome (to name only a few examples) show that voting does matter.

Yes i agree people are likely to cluster but i can be a businessman and an enviromentalist, have a social conscience as well as being fiscally responsible, and party politics and having to vote along party lines seem to squash all that.

 

[muck]

Hence the fraying out of European politics, where both sides of the aisle are claimed by a multitude of parties.

The concept itself isn't bad, I think; two-party systems don't really reflect the plurality of modern societies anymore.

But every system comes with its own inbuilt deficiencies, and what we've been seeing in Europe is the cannibalisation of opposing views for short-term political gain. For instance, left-leaning parties like Britain's Labour were fairly right-leaning for a while during the late 1990s and early 2000s (at least by their own standards), whereas we nowadays observe the betrayal of conservatism by e.g. Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats.

Their "poaching" bogs the parties down in arguments over the right to represent their side of the spectrum. It's an argument that bears a striking resemblance to religious clashes between branches of a faith. In the mean time, the political fringes thrive and the basis for parliamentary majorities erodes.

The only European leader to have deviated from this as of late is Austria's Sebastian Kurz, and I'm simply astonished no one's dared to copy a page out of his book. He demonstrated how to break up a political stalemate.

Kurz, a conservative, ignored the outrage and his party's doubts and entered a coalition with a far right rival that'd been eating his party's supporters up for years. During their common term, that rival party revealed itself (save for a few exceptions) to be corrupt and incompetent. As a result, all its gains crumbled and Kurz won the last elections.

You can't weaken someone through excluding them. You can weaken someone by including them so the world sees what they're really like.

 

[bfc1001]

Hence the fraying out of European politics, where both sides of the aisle are claimed by a multitude of parties.

The concept itself isn't bad, I think; two-party systems don't really reflect the plurality of modern societies anymore.

But every system comes with its own inbuilt deficiencies, and what we've been seeing in Europe is the cannibalisation of opposing views for short-term political gain. For instance, left-leaning parties like Britain's Labour were fairly right-leaning for a while during the late 1990s and early 2000s (at least by their own standards), whereas we nowadays observe the betrayal of conservatism by e.g. Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats.

Their "poaching" bogs the parties down in arguments over the right to represent their side of the spectrum. It's an argument that bears a striking resemblance to religious clashes between branches of a faith. In the mean time, the political fringes thrive and the basis for parliamentary majorities erodes.

The only European leader to have deviated from this as of late is Austria's Sebastian Kurz, and I'm simply astonished no one's dared to copy a page out of his book. He demonstrated how to break up a political stalemate.

Kurz, a conservative, ignored the outrage and his party's doubts and entered a coalition with a far right rival that'd been eating his party's supporters up for years. During their common term, that rival party revealed itself (save for a few exceptions) to be corrupt and incompetent. As a result, all its gains crumbled and Kurz won the last elections.

You can't weaken someone through excluding them. You can weaken someone by including them so the world sees what they're really like.

Wise words . It's become blatantly obvious to me that we are fighting the same battles , we see the same flawed political apparatus that pretends to do our bidding . We're all left wing , or right wing depending on your viewpoint but are ruled by centrists or liberals which weighs with your viewpoint that an almost religious behavior has spread in those we trust to lead .

 

[muck]

It's curious you'd say this as I was just returning to this thread to make a concession: You could argue against my theory by pointing at Boris Johnson. The current Tories' leadership has copied a page or two out of populism's book, but they do dare to be ideological again. If Johnson stands by his pledge not to cooperate with Farage but delivers Brexit, he could be able to eliminate his only right-wing rival.

 

[Junglejim]

This S**t wouldnt have happened under Franco...

 

[Telmar]

There is simply a narrower and narrower lane between the extremes. I won't even add "right" or "left" because the lines are blurry, especially when it comes to economic governance.

There used to be a rather christian/conservative tow with the social/democrat tow and on the side the communists obeying their leadership. That was the hardcore cement of the political fabric. Disagreements existed but were solved on board. Anyways, if you were not the member of a strong party, noone would hear you.

The internet makes any issue crucial to the survival of your people, and any orator with some communication skills very visible, and enables lots of info to be available, not all of it being legit (to put it mildly).

This goes further than arrangements between parties. This is a social issue that will require people to be much smarter, much more open to compromise, as the decision in elections relies much more on following your gut than following party lines.

 

[Mokordo]

This S**t wouldnt have happened under Franco...

I didn´t live during Franco´s times, but is well remembered a sentence who said once: "Haced como yo, no os metáis nunca en política". (Do as I did, never play(be involved in) politics".

 

[Mokordo]

Prediction of results according to all the surveys made last weeks by Spanish newspapers( collected and released by El País), absolute majority is 176 seats:

Original article:

Quién va a ganar las elecciones, según las encuestas

Así es la predicción final de nuestro modelo estadístico a partir de encuestas y 15.000 simulaciones. Con escaños y mayorías

elpais.com

 

[Kaiserschlacht]

Prediction of results according to all the surveys made last weeks by Spanish newspapers( collected and released by El País), absolute majority is 176 seats:

View attachment 194490

Original article:

Quién va a ganar las elecciones, según las encuestas

Así es la predicción final de nuestro modelo estadístico a partir de encuestas y 15.000 simulaciones. Con escaños y mayorías

elpais.com

Seems like the only option would be to form a grand coaliton à la Germany for Spain to come out of this political mess. But are both parties willing to work together ?

 

[Mokordo]

Seems like the only option would be to form a grand coaliton à la Germany for Spain to come out of this political mess. But are both parties willing to work together ?

Do you mean PP and PSOE? PP has said something in favour in this sense (with little convinction), but PSOE said sharply no . PSOE´s voters wouldn´t understand a coallition with the "right", but once the election is finished, it would not be surprising they reach an agreement. They would probably argue pragmatism and a sacrifice for the greater good of the country.

 

[Stormovik]

Do you mean PP and PSOE? PP has said something in favour in this sense (with little convinction), but PSOE said sharply no . PSOE´s voters wouldn´t understand a coallition with the "right", but once the election is finished, it would not be surprising they reach an agreement. They would probably argue pragmatism and a sacrifice for the greater good of the country.

Not only a good number of PSOE voters wouldn´t be happy with that kind of coalition, also a big chunk of PP voters won´t be happy if that kind of coalition is formed. Both parties would be in a complicated situation, and probably in the next elections both would lose voters, something that both Podemos and VOX would enjoy And that calculations work against getting that kind of solution.

 

[Mokordo]

Not only a good number of PSOE voters wouldn´t be happy with that kind of coalition, also a big chunk of PP voters won´t be happy if that kind of coalition is formed. Both parties would be in a complicated situation, and probably in the next elections both would lose voters, something that both Podemos and VOX would enjoy And that calculations work against getting that kind of solution.

It´s suposed that PP will increase the number of votes notably, at the expense of Ciudadanos. The only who would gain voters significantly could be be VOX.Maybe not so many as they think.

My opinion is that the PP´s median voter would be agree with a great coallition with PSOE, and PSOE´s, specially those who are more in the left, don´t.

Remember Sánchez´s "No es no".

 

[Stormovik]

After losing a big number of voters to VOX and Ciudadanos, and now supposedly getting again part of the runaway voters who went to Ciudadanos, PP has to be very careful with the options it takes. I´m quite sure that Casado is not interested in taking decisions that will push part of his electors to VOX, and that is going to happen if he decides to make a coallition with the current PSOE.

 

[muck]

How about a government of national unity, with representatives of all sides involved? Surely the challenges Spain faces would justify such a drastic step?

 

[Stormovik]

How about a government of national unity, with representatives of all sides involved? Surely the challenges Spain faces would justify such a drastic step?

That would be great, but I don´t have any faith on our politicians :/ Far right and far left parties for sure won´t agree with being on a government where the other side is involved, and the moderate ones will be too interested in not losing ground to their far side "siblings"... I´m afraid that in some months we will have another thread about Spanish General Elections. Hope that in the end common sense will prevail and we get some kind of agreement useful for the country