Politics Dutch general elections Wed. Nov. 22 2023

[Mike1976]

Dutch general elections will be held on Wednesday Nov. 22 2023

Polling of 18-11-2023 shows tight margins between the front runners with four parties clearly sticking out, but the PVV seems to have the most momentum:

-VVD, liberal party who supplied the PM for the last 13 years
-PVV, Geert Wilders & co, now less abrasive in order to appear like a viable coalition partner
-New Social Contract, a new party, but led by someone who's been a thorn in the side of the latest governments. Very good with facts and statistics and the (interpretation of) legislation, but otherwise rather boring/bland. During the last elections he was still a part of the CDA and the other coalition partners tried to have him sent out to pasture because they were afraid of him not pulling punches on their crappy government. This leaked out because one of the negotiators had a memo saying "Pieter Omtzigt - get rid of" which they held in a way where a photographer managed to take a picture of it. Clowns couldn't even get rid of one person without showing enormous incompetence. I personally feel his policies range from center left to center right, but as with any threat to the existing parties who isn't a raging commie he's labelled by some as extreme-right
-PvdA/Groenlinks, a combination of Labour and the Greens led by europhile climate change activist/frequent flyer Frans Timmermans
-D66, europhiles
-BBB, farmers rights
-CDA, Christian Democrats, used to be the #1 party by a country mile
-FvD, Neo-Nazis Are Us
-PvdDieren, animal rights
-SP, Socialist Party, workers rights rather than "modern" left wing nonsense
-Volt, extreme europhiles
-DENK, islamic party, homophobes etc
-ChristenUnie, like the CDA, but more socialist
-SGP, conservative Christians
-JA21, off-shoot of FvD of people who figured that brown suits weren't their thing
-BvNL, a political opportunist previously associated with VVD, PVV, FvD and JA21 (I think I got them all ... ). Also a ret. Green -Beret
-BIJ1, the BLM party
-50PLUS, do I really need to explain this one?

Provided the (center) right wing parties don't fight each other like they usually do a government of VVD, PVV, NSC and BBB would have 82 seats out of a total 150.

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A public broadcaster hired a pollster (most of the people in their database are traditionally more towards the left side of the spectrum) to gauge the most important topics among potential voters likely to influence their vote. In the age bracket of 18-35 y/o the following stands out:
Climate change - 20%
Israel/Gaza - 18%

These are the figures for the most activist, brainwashed age group. Neither issue is even in the top 10.

The media was gleefully spinning the tale of "Crimes against Gaza will influence the elections!!!".

Nope, it's only a thing with people who were going to vote for islamist parties and/or the extreme-left no matter what anyway. Just the usual clowns shouting the loudest make it seem like they in any way are representative.

Oh wait there is this one thing that's shifted: 65% of people polled want much stricter immigration control. Went up from a fairly stable 55%. Which is why, instigated by NGOs, the activist civil servants are trying to push through boat loads of Gaza refugees while they still can.

It seems a lot of people are shocked by the way the usual crowd and the MSM downplays the terrorist attacks in Israel and threats against Israelis and Jews in Europe by taking the age old Memorial Day saying of "No More Auschwitz" and spelling out that they want "Now More Auschwitz".

 

[Mike1976]

21:15 exit poll (usually a margin of 1-2 seats)

PVV 35
GL/PVDA 25
VVD 24
NSC 20
D66 10
BBB 7
CDA 5
SP 5
PVDD 3
FVD 3
CU 3
SGP 3
DENK 3
VOLT 2
JA21 1
50PLUS 1

 

[TheKiwi]

What does that do for the likely makeup of the next government?

 

[Mike1976]

What does that do for the likely makeup of the next government?

Well it depends on how much credibility you're willing to put in politicians on the campaign trail.

PVV, VVD, NSC and BBB have a combined total of 86/150 seats. All are right of center, but that's the biggest problem because right wing parties are famous for bickering amongst themselves and individuals splitting off (seats belong to the elected, not the party, so once the representative is appointed the party loses control over it).

The leader of the VVD said that she doesn't want to work with the PVV if Wilders becomes PM. NSC is reserved because some of the PVV plans are (assumed to be) in contention with the constitution and their leader is a staunch proponent of strict adherence to the constitution. BBB holds a large number of seats in the senate so they're needed to get plans through both houses even though without them the three parties would already have enough seats to form a government.

The combination of the GL/PVDA (former Green and Labour) parties is the only reason they have come as far as they have. Without the combined list they were polling at 8 and 8 seats and now got 25. They robbed many other left wing parties of voters by making them vote strategically on their party instead of fracturing across the parties.

I could easily foresee the VVD sidestepping the PVV and trying to form a government with the GL/PVDA instead. They've proven for the last 13 years that they'd sell their soul to the devil to retain power.

 

[Vorph]

Dutch election: Anti-Islam populist Geert Wilders set for victory - exit poll

Veteran Geert Wilders' party is set to secure most seats and says "we will govern".

www.bbc.co.uk

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[muck]

I'm assuming that Wilders will follow the example set forth by his Finnish and Swedish counterparts (as he should) and offer concessions to win a stable majority? I mean, the first thing the True Finns did was ditching their demand for Finnland leaving the EU and hey presto, they became a viable partner for the moderate right? Same thing in Italy. Europe's not America, our political landscape isn't bi-polar. I'd wish more so-called populists would realise that concessions aren't necessarily a bad thing. Surely, it's better to compromise and get 75% of your agenda implemented rather than insisting on your dogmas and getting nothing implemented at all?

 

[Mike1976]

93,9% of votes counted.

Changes only:

PVV +2 37
50PLUS -1 0

 

[Mike1976]

I'm assuming that Wilders will follow the example set forth by his Finnish and Swedish counterparts (as he should) and offer concessions to win a stable majority? I mean, the first thing the True Finns did was ditching their demand for Finnland leaving the EU and hey presto, they became a viable partner for the moderate right? Same thing in Italy. Europe's not America, our political landscape isn't bi-polar. I'd wish more so-called populists would realise that concessions aren't necessarily a bad thing. Surely, it's better to compromise and get 75% of your agenda implemented rather than insisting on your dogmas and getting nothing implemented at all?

His campaign was much more moderate, but even then a lot of problems will arise because European treaties and "laws" obstruct pretty much every conservative politician intent on actually changing anything.

 

[Redav]

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[Redav]

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[Mike1976]

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Nah, it's racism!

The socialist public broadcaster has invited all of it's employees to a bingefest tonight to mourn the results because Wilders is a "threat to independent broadcasting". According to the "independent" network who championed Frans Timmerman's GL/PVDA and demonized everyone else to the right of Mao.

At the taxpayer's expense of course.

 

[Mike1976]

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Politics is a pendulum. It will inevitably swing the other way sooner or later. It's to do with unhappy voters voting for the other guy in protest and/or hoping it will make things any better. Not ideology or long term thinking.

You say you'll get me some extra money? Let's give you a change for two years before we obliterate you in the mid terms in favor of the party you're replacing. This is why nothing gets done anymore, because parties are on a near continuous campaign trail.

 

[Redav]

Politics is a pendulum. It will inevitably swing the other way sooner or later. It's to do with unhappy voters voting for the other guy in protest and/or hoping it will make things any better.

I'm crossing fingers Portugal also swings the other next march but i'm not very confident

 

[Jake84]

@Mike1976 Just curious what’s Geert stance about Russia/Ukraine? Dank je.

 

[Mike1976]

@Mike1976 Just curious what’s Geert stance about Russia/Ukraine? Dank je.

Condems the war, but has also said that the situation with Ukraine and membership of the EU and NATO has been mishandled on the political level pushing Putin towards further escalation.

He's not against supporting Ukraine, but doesn't want to send weapons as long as the Dutch armed forces are stripped bare themselves.

All other (major) parties are for sending weapons no matter what, so I'm guessing this is going to be traded off for increased defence spending (or something entirely unrelated).

 

[primer]

Maybe he sees Putin as like him.

 

[Mike1976]

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Hmm yes and no. It played a role, but the decline had already set in prior to Oct. 7 after NSC announced they would be running which made BBB lose a lot of potential voters as the NSC leader is known for being a particularly sharp debater on procedural and legal matters. "The Next Big Thing".

BBB, being originally founded to defend the interests of farmers also made a huge mistake by declaring that they would be ok with building residential areas on farmland.

That led to potential voters shifting towards mainly NSC and also PVV. The big change occurred during the last two weeks which saw all of the public debates. Wilders, the senior member of parliament, and NSC's Pieter Omtzigt are quite likely the most knowledgeable MPs, but Omtzigt has a very bland personality where as Wilders knows how to work an audience and what buttons to push with opponents.

JFK vs a bunch of Nixons.

 

[Mike1976]

VVD's leader declares she will not enter into a government with the PVV, doesn't rule out supporting a minority government. Aka she wants to cherry pick without being responsible for the outcome.

Meanwhile a survey among party members found that 84% of VVD and 87% of NSC members want to form a government with the PVV.

I'm guessing that Dilan Yesilgöz is going to be replaced in the not too distant future if she doesn't back down.

 

[Mike1976]

Meanwhile in Amsterdam the usual crowd of squatters, professional protesters, social sciences students and the habitually unemployed held a vigil. In Utrecht people held hands. Hoping there weren't any same sex people coincidentally holding hands or they risk being beaten up in that multi culturally enriched dump.

Celebrities are in meltdown. Pundits are in denial. Everyone who didn't vote for Timmermans is a deplorable uneducated moron who should be stripped of their voting rights.

 

[Mike1976]

Electoral demographics studies seem to indicate that the people who voted PVV are far more diverse than the media makes them out to be. Abdelkader Benali, a Moroccan born novellist and traditional social democrat said that some of his muslim friends voted PVV.