Warfare Russia/Ukraine War

[BCNTM]

Another überbullsh1t is, monsieur Putain claims that NATO can deploy ballistic missiles in Ukraine and they can hit Moscow within 7 minutes.
However, the distance between Moscow and Latvia is below 600km and slightly over 600km between the Russian capital and Estonia. The distance between Moscow and Ukraine is 470km. So, that guy is talking about the difference of less than 130km.
Apart from that, the distance between Estonia and St. Peterburg is just below 130km.

Why is he worried if he has a super dooper system that can shoot down anything?

 

[BCNTM]

I think for us viewers the most educated guess/ interpreting the seriousness of Russian intentions is to track the buildup of logistic forces and supply dumps rather than count battalion tactical groups that have moved to the border. The size and scale of logistic preparation tell us exactly how far and deep is Russian army planning to go.

Major attack wouldn't be fast enough, for a major conquest there isn't enough troops and spring is coming fast that, to this day limits movement in the steppe. I don't think they are going to do anything and i hope i'm right.

The problem is what does Putin consider as suitable losses if he invades - how many body bags has he ordered and politically how many losses can he stand and still stay in power?

Also, I don't hold much hope for his outpost in Syria - and that is an issue - if he starts just how far will this expand

 

[Ivan le Fou]

The problem is what does Putin consider as suitable losses if he invades - how many body bags has he ordered and politically how many losses can he stand and still stay in power?

Also, I don't hold much hope for his outpost in Syria - and that is an issue - if he starts just how far will this expand

But also, what does it has to gain?

Yes, invading Ukraine would make Russia gain some land space, but... what of it?

And long term wise? Again, what of it?


Pretty much another maskirovka.

 

[NoOne]

The problem is what does Putin consider as suitable losses if he invades - how many body bags has he ordered and politically how many losses can he stand and still stay in power?

Also, I don't hold much hope for his outpost in Syria - and that is an issue - if he starts just how far will this expand

That is a valid question. Is President Putin absolutely certain this crisis will not develop into something he never intended?

There is a sense of almost reckless urgency in this.

 

[Ivan le Fou]

Putin's record isn't perfect, but he has more experience using military force than any other leader in the world. Is there much evidence that Russian casualties sustained in these conflicts significantly hurt his domestic approval?

Wishful thinking.

Putin has overseen:
-2nd Chechen War
-2008 Russo-Georgian War
-Invasion of Ukraine 2014-now
-Intervention in Syria 2015-now
Russia sustained thousands of KIAs in those conflicts. If Putin decides to escalate, he'll be prepared to sustain hundreds of casualties or more

I doubt we will see an endless guerilla war fought by an Ukrainian national militia trained locally by "foreign advisors"; which would come at a cost of critical destruction of Ukraine’s infrastructure and lots of casualties.
Just like Russia will withdraw after losing 10,000 before breakfast à-la Chechnya will undermine their patriotic spirit and plunge the Russian public opinion into a 0 tolerance for casualties policy. When it comes to body count, Ukraine's will is likely the break before Russia's.

The fact that this has not happened and will, hopefully, not happen can lead us to some interesting conclusions though.

We shouldn't underestimate him.

 

[morris]

I know this well.
In my country, for forty years, the newspapers were full of smiling pictures of Russian soldiers, and they were even invited to school ceremonies.
And it was forbidden to write about Russian fighter planes crashing into houses and similar incidents, including manslaughter.

Eastern and Russian democracy, yeah..

Why wouldn't they smile after liberating your country from Nazism.

 

[morris]

Iggy said that one member of the 7th Lugansk Taliban Motorised Brigade surrendered to the UA Army.

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Actually he was Polished

 

[morris]

I hope an asteroid comes in and smacks the biggest ruski tank park.......

I wish you quick recovery from BoJo syndrome

 

[morris]

Why is he worried if he has a super dooper system that can shoot down anything?

He is nice man and doesn't want to see NATO persons more embarrassed then they are already

 

[SamWell]

I have a feeling that the numbers are deliberately inflated in order to brake the adversary spirit and order, the western media and politicians are helping to do that too like useful idiots they are. Russian military don't even need to cross the border, the "ROAR" will be enough to fill roads with panicking crowds to degrade Ukraine army maneuvering ability.
Anyway it looks like this time Russians are well and truly ready for the Olympics.

Russia could have done this back in 2014. And perhaps it would have been better for everyone. Instead,it chose to recognize the coup, transfer weapons to Kiev, surrender opponents to Kiev,аnd messing with Donbas.Why so its up to debate,but it didn't look like Russia was going to change her line of behavior.
The real question here is what could push Russia to change its mind on this issue,and was it changed?

Putin will never have a better opportunity to redress the map to more appropriately reflect Russian "security interests" than at this very moment. I will be surprised if there is not a more amenable government in Kiev come March one way or the other, as it would be an enormous loss of face for Putin to back down now. Things get worse; now that Lukashenka is Putin's poodle, Poland may face a strategic vise.

He had such opportunities before. And he calmly ignored them. It is likely that he might have wanted something else then, but this is another question. What is so special about current events?

It depends on what Putin really wants to achieve from this manufactured crisis.

Its the only real question,if you ask me

 

[morris]

how many body bags has he ordered

You can squeeze 3 or 4 NATO persons in a bag so that won't ruin the economy

 

[Ivan le Fou]

One also has to keep in mind the West has antagonized Russia and blamed it for virtually most, if not all, of their problems.

Be them real or fabricated for internal political gains (Trump-Russia collusion, Macron's hoax about his emails being hacked by Russia, Russia setting bounties on US troops in Afghanistan, etc...).

Russia can genuinely be blamed for some things, but the "elites" in the West have developed an acute hysteria and managed to pass it on the population.

Blaming someone for something they did is one thing, but blaming someone for something they didn't do and being unrepentant about it is another. And it has non-negligible outcomes.

 

[morris]

So it appears that western fake news media succeeded in panicking not only banderites but their puppeteers as well, as was said before all Russians have to do is to watch the circus in amusement.

 

[Ivan le Fou]

Not sure if they are indeed watching it with amusement.

Or, if they are, maybe with a dash of concern.

But what would the West do anyway? Apart from hyping the hysteria, conduct preemptive strikes?

 

[Hiryu2.0]

Why wouldn't they smile after liberating your country from Nazism.

We are NOT liberated, we are occupied.
( fun facrt: on the one hand, the German occupation of Hungary was without resistance, no governor was appointed, the Hungarian army fought on the side of the German army until May 1945)

Then the communist party, with Russian support, took over, a local version of Stalinism came in.
Then the crushing of the 1956 revolution. the Warsaw Pact, the permanent stationing of Soviet troops in Hungary, etc)
Now the country is very stupid, but there is a professional and popular consensus that 1945 was not liberation but occupation.

 

[morris]

We are NOT liberated, we are occupied.
( fun facrt: on the one hand, the German occupation of Hungary was without resistance, no governor was appointed, the Hungarian army fought on the side of the German army until May 1945)

Then the communist party, with Russian support, took over, a local version of Stalinism came in.
Then the crushing of the 1956 revolution. the Warsaw Pact, the permanent stationing of Soviet troops in Hungary, etc)
Now the country is very stupid, but there is a professional and popular consensus that 1945 was not liberation but occupation.

If you weren't liberated Russian soldiers wouldn't smile.

 

[SamWell]

So it appears that western fake news media succeeded in panicking not only banderites but their puppeteers as well, as was said before all Russians have to do is to watch the circus in amusement.

it doesn't look so funny from inside the circus...

But what would the West do anyway? Apart from hyping the hysteria, conduct preemptive strikes?

Um ... I don’t even know ... Maybe stop supporting the criminal regime, arm the Nazi battalions, put pressure on the oligarchs and convince Kiev to resolve issues in a DEMOCRATIC way

 

[Ivan le Fou]

it doesn't look so funny from inside the circus...

Um ... I don’t even know ... Maybe stop supporting the criminal regime, arm the Nazi battalions, put pressure on the oligarchs and convince Kiev to resolve issues in a DEMOCRATIC way

I don't know about the rest, but pressuring the oligarchs is dead on arrival. Especially considering their ties with the Bidens.

 

[Hiryu2.0]

If you weren't liberated Russian soldiers wouldn't smile.
View attachment 366876

are you seriously arguing with a WWII propaganda poster?
because then the posters that dehumanize the Japanese, the Germans are also true arguments--

 

[SamWell]

We are NOT liberated, we are occupied.
( fun facrt: on the one hand, the German occupation of Hungary was without resistance, no governor was appointed, the Hungarian army fought on the side of the German army until May 1945)

Then the communist party, with Russian support, took over, a local version of Stalinism came in.
Then the crushing of the 1956 revolution. the Warsaw Pact, the permanent stationing of Soviet troops in Hungary, etc)
Now the country is very stupid, but there is a professional and popular consensus that 1945 was not liberation but occupation.

So you were with the Nazis until the very end. What а good fellows!
(fun facrt:Hungarians, in percentage terms, committed more crimes than other axis allies in the occupied territory)

And what are you complaining about?
You always could have surrendered first, like the Finns, and would have gotten off with the loss of territory and reparations. But no!
You still could have surrendered second, like the Romanians. You would have to eat the sweet bread of communism, but at least there would be no hated Soviet troops on your territory ... Also not your option?
Decided to show your character and stand to the last? Well, get a full course of prostate massage-you deserve it!