I put much of the blame for this bizarre situation squarely on the Western Alliance.
It was quite hubristic to hand out security guarantees like jelly beans without the commensurate ability to back up those guarantees. Goad the Bear with a pellet gun.
Putin will never have a better opportunity to redress the map to more appropriately reflect Russian "security interests" than at this very moment. I will be surprised if there is not a more amenable government in Kiev come March one way or the other, as it would be an enormous loss of face for Putin to back down now. Things get worse; now that Lukashenka is Putin's poodle, Poland may face a strategic vise.
Of course Ukraine could decide to fight, and Biden cannot afford to appear weak after the debacle in Afghanistan, so there is a chance this turns into a disaster for the entire region, with NATO providing arms, intelligence and financial support for Ukraine. I would have thought that Vlad was paying attention to the fact that it is easy to start a war, but not so easy to win a war. This scenario scares me as it should scare any sane individual.
Hopefully, NATO will come to realize that further expansion is in no one's interest (including Georgia & Ukraine) and after the dust has settled, declare that officially. There is precedent for such a quid pro quo as in the Jupiter missiles in Turkey, and would allow both sides to stand down gracefully. It depends on what Putin really wants to achieve from this manufactured crisis.