Warfare Russia/Ukraine War

[Ivan le Fou]

And that' s a wrap people! No further investigation needed.

Isn't your field of expertise selling insurances, or something?

 

[Ivan le Fou]

You said it might come form the Ukrainian side. They downed their own missile?

It might/may come from the South-West, which is under Ukrainian control.

But the AD defense, be it Ukrainian or Russian, does not starts/stops at the frontline.

Russian forces may have very well detected the launch and intercepted it on its way. If it did come from the south-west, the targets could have been Izyum, Rubizhnye (or anywhere in between). These are two of the main hot zones in the area and approximate trajectory.

But the Ukrainian forces could have very well shot it down as well after mistaking it for something launched by either Russia or the DPR.
Not sure what are Ukraine radar and EWS capabilities in the region at the moment, but one could assume radar and EW systems would have been among the first targets since the war began.


Knowing the 9M79 has a reach of 163 to 185km (let's say max 200km), it could have been fired from anywhere within that circle (with kramatorsk at the center):


That being said, only serials numbers and/or markings could tell us who it belonged to.
Ukraine marks their objects with "вир", abbreviation of "вироб" ("изделие" in Russian), followed by the serial number.

 

[Fluff]

Good summary from UK Def sec:

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[Telmar]

They lied about intercepting it because in reality they didnt. They just didnt want to admit their air defense failed.

Again look at the picture of the dead people posted above. No missile debris visible. So I stick with the same version - DNR air defense failed to intercept Tochka with cluster warhead that exploded above the city hitting civilians with the shrapnel.

Please stay

 

[HAL9000]

Good summary from UK Def sec:

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In worst case scenario Russians just keep what they captured in South-East. But most likely they will make further gains in the following days/weeks.

 

[HAL9000]

Please stay

Change record already.

 

[Telmar]

Ballsy: He is the PM

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He regretted not travelling with the Polish, Slovenian and Czech PM the other day. To his credit, he is father of five small kids while the others had no more family duties, but he felt a little ashamed.

Glad we are providing the S300 to the Ukrainians!

 

[Telmar]

Isn't your field of expertise selling insurances, or something?

At least I can sell something.

 

[HAL9000]

USD/RUB = 72.00 on Moex and keeps falling...

 

[Ivan le Fou]

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[Mark Sman]

USD/RUB = 72.00 on Moex and keeps falling...

That is great news! Curious then that Russia didn't exchange Rubles for dollars at that rate so that they could meet their contractually agreed upon bond payments in dollars.

Why did they initiate a bond default? Side note, how is inflation?

 

[HAL9000]

That is great news! Curious then that Russia didn't exchange Rubles for dollars at that rate so that they could meet their contractually agreed upon bond payments in dollars.
Why did they initiate a bond default?

Because West defaulted on their obligations ie has frozen dollar and euro assets from Russian foreign reserves...

Side note, how is inflation?

Not gonna be massive as Rouble regained its value...

 

[Ivan le Fou]

That is great news! Curious then that Russia didn't exchange Rubles for dollars at that rate so that they could meet their contractually agreed upon bond payments in dollars.

Why did they initiate a bond default? Side note, how is inflation?

Regarding the bond default, wasn't it because, or could it be caused by, banks had blocked their assets or something?

 

[Mark Sman]

Because West defaulted on their obligations ie has frozen dollar and euro assets from Russian foreign reserves...

Not gonna be massive as Rouble regained its value...

So Russia could have paid in Dollars as contractually agreed, because they could have exchanged Rubles for dollars at good rate on MOEX. But they chose not to because of sanctions freezing other assets.

Let me tell you what bankers don't care about. Somebody else's problems. They do however care about being paid. War, peace, alien invasion. This makes no difference to them.

Oh and by they way, Inflation and price increases have done more to reduce the buying power of the Rouble than the ostensible recovery of the Rouble to almost pre war levels on MOEX. By the way, the Rouble isn't trading at that rate elsewhere.

More of this is going to start sinking in as the ability of Russia to control the narrative internally by continuous lies starts to fail. They will, of course, switch to new lies about why this is happening. Oddly in this case they may choose to resort to a half truth about it being the "Wests" fault.

 

[Mark Sman]

Regarding the bond default, wasn't it because, or could it be caused by, banks had blocked their assets or something?

Banks haven't blocked their assets. Governments have.

Also, the first step in the default is because Russia has sent a payment in Roubles, which is not contractually allowed on this bond. Which is also curious if they could have exchanged those Roubles for dollars at that rate on the MOEX and then sent dollars.

Again bankers do not care about somebody else's problems.

 

[Ivan le Fou]

Banks haven't blocked their assets. Governments have.

Also, the first step in the default is because Russia has sent a payment in Roubles, which is not contractually allowed on this bond. Which is also curious if they could have exchanged those Roubles for dollars at that rate on the MOEX and then sent dollars.

Again bankers do not care about somebody else's problems.

Thank you or the clarification.

 

[Hiryu2.0]

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[Devil Child]

Change record already.

I see you joined today and already getting comfy with 22 solid russia-stronk replies in this thread alone. Welcome to MilitaryImages.net! Feel free to introduce yourself but I can’t shake this hunch we have already met you.

Déjà vu...

 

[Hiryu2.0]

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Szele Tamás: „За детей” - Zóna

Az, hogy halála után a Pokolban fog-e égni az illető az Örökkévalóságig, már világnézet kérdése, és mint ilyen, másodlagos: előbb jusson oda.

www.zonaporkolt.com

 

[Fluff]

In worst case scenario Russians just keep what they captured in South-East. But most likely they will make further gains in the following days/weeks.

Worst case:

UN declares Russian aggression illegal, grants Ukraine a hunting license of 100km into Russian territory, for 5 years. Ukraine not allowed to use Nukes. If Russia uses Nuke on Ukraine, UN will drop 2 on major russian cities. Russia free to negotiate with Ukraine.

Do you want to re-assess your 'worst case'?