*Essen still seems alive and well, despite claims of "numerous Neptune" strikes*
More on the Tochka-U that hit Kramatosk:
Appears to have either been intercepted or malfunctioned. A Tochka usually impacts the target as a whole. For reference, here is what a crater left by a Tochka-U looks like:
Regarding how the Tochka works, the missile's "combat unit" (payload/nose cone) does not separate in flight. It is a single stage system.
So, what could lead to suggest that Tochka-U got shot down.
First we could start by remembering the events of Donetsk where a downed Tochka-U crashed and caused significant civilian casualties.
Wether the warhead detonates or not, it still remains a 1t5 rocket-propelled metallic object falling from the sky. If it hits the ground shrapnel will be produced.
The Tochka (no matter if it is a "U" or not) is a single stage system. If it is set to hit a target, the whole thing will hit the target. If it is set for airbust, the entire thing will detonate up in the air.
The fact the booster part remains, all things considered, intact suggests it missile didn't crash as it should have if it had been on its terminal trajectory.
The fact there are no submunition impacts or craters could also suggest the casualties were the result of flying debris and shrapnel.
Payload fitted on a Tchoka:
-Nuclear (AA-60/AA-86/AA-92). We can rule these out.
-9H123F (500kh HE). We can rule that one out as well.
-9H123K (shrapnel submunition).
The 9H123K carries fifty OBE 9N24 submunitions (1kg45 of explosive) able to cover an area of 3,5 to 7ha.
Results of a submunition bombardment are fairly unmistakable, especially when there are trees around. None of which are visible in this situation.
Two have been claimed to have been launched though. One of them has been documented with the pictures above, but there are not traces/reports of the other one, as of now that is.
The position of the wreck also suggests it came from the south west, which is under Ukrainian control.