Warfare Russia/Ukraine War

[muck]

@Fluff (& @Chazman)

Trump touted a very good idea over the summer of 2024: Ukraine hands Crimea over to Russia, in exchange for which the Russians sod off and if they don't, Uncle Sam floods Ukraine with high-tech weapons.

If he'd stuck with that, it could've done a lot of good.

What did he actually do? He's threatened the Russians with sanctions and tariffs four times since taking office, always reneging at the eleventh hour. He's also rebuked the defender and ignored the aggressor's openly disrespecting him.

Frankly, I don't expect he'll be able to make an iota of a difference.

And no, this is not "Trump derangement" on my part, by the way. I've always said I like many of his domestic policies. But as a diplomat, Trump is hopelessly overrated. He only thinks in dollars and quarter-end accounts, even when dealing with a Russian president who pens essays in the mould of 'Mein Kampf'.

His negative comments on Ukraine's continued resistance reflect a deep disconnect from the mentality of all involved.

Trump is the kind of guy who would've reacted to the Warsaw Uprising all like "Do they have any idea how expensive rebuilding that city is gonna be?" I absolutely don't believe him when he claims he wants to stop the bloodshed because he cares about the troops. This isn't criticism on my part either, because he doesn't have to care.

I've never understood why so many in the West insist on telling the Ukrainians what price they're allowed to pay for their freedom. It's the Ukrainians whose future is at stake. They're the only ones who get to decide when it's enough.

 

[Connaught Ranger]

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[Chazman]

@Fluff (& @Chazman)

Trump touted a very good idea over the summer of 2024: Ukraine hands Crimea over to Russia, in exchange for which the Russians sod off and if they don't, Uncle Sam floods Ukraine with high-tech weapons.

If he'd stuck with that, it could've done a lot of good.

What did he actually do? He's threatened the Russians with sanctions and tariffs four times since taking office, always reneging at the eleventh hour. He's also rebuked the defender and ignored the aggressor's openly disrespecting him.

Frankly, I don't expect he'll be able to make an iota of a difference.

And no, this is not "Trump derangement" on my part, by the way. I've always said I like many of his domestic policies. But as a diplomat, Trump is hopelessly overrated. He only thinks in dollars and quarter-end accounts, even when dealing with a Russian president who pens essays in the mould of 'Mein Kampf'.

His negative comments on Ukraine's continued resistance reflect a deep disconnect from the mentality of all involved.

Trump is the kind of guy who would've reacted to the Warsaw Uprising all like "Do they have any idea how expensive rebuilding that city is gonna be?" I absolutely don't believe him when he claims he wants to stop the bloodshed because he cares about the troops. This isn't criticism on my part either, because he doesn't have to care.

I've never understood why so many in the West insist on telling the Ukrainians what price they're allowed to pay for their freedom. It's the Ukrainians whose future is at stake. They're the only ones who get to decide when it's enough.

The Ukrainians will fight to the last 14 year old. But the war is and has been in stalemate. Time to end it and stop the killing. Time to rebuild Ukraine and help it develop wealth. Russia, well they have new friends now. China, North Korea, Iran. Things should be great for them after the war, (sarcasm).

 

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[thelistener]

There's a difference between allies coordinating and going rogue.

Yes and the senior allied partner calls the shots. And if Trump admin doesn't want Europe to do something for or in Ukraine; its disingenuous to imply that Europe could take the "lead".

 

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[muck]

The Ukrainians will fight to the last 14-year-old.

I don't think so. But let's assume you're right—so? I'm not even being ironic. I find myself unable to condemn a nation willing to fight to its last breath. I doubt many Western nations are cut from the same cloth. Perhaps that's why so many in the West would like to abandon Ukraine. Their vigour shames our indifference.

But the war is and has been in stalemate.

Yeah, because of us. The former CIA head of European operations recently admitted as much in an interview, saying Biden never wanted to enable Ukraine to win for fear of nuclear escalation, so he only greenlit enough military aid from America and the West to slow the Russians down. (Link)

Time to end it and stop the killing.

As I said, in my opinion only the Ukrainians can decide if that time has come.

We get to decide if we continue sending aid, but nothing else.

There is also a catch to this noble sentiment of yours: Russia is hungry for the whole of Ukraine. If Putin feels emboldened by us, he'll soon go on the offensive once more and many more will die.

Appeasement makes aggressors more aggressive.

Some here (I don't mean you) have tried to discredit this truth as callous warmongering; but so far, they've utterly failed to explain why a peace at all costs is preferable to the status quo if such a peace risks laying the groundwork for the next war.

 

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[Fluff]

I don't think so. But let's assume you're right—so? I'm not even being ironic. I find myself unable to condemn a nation willing to fight to its last breath. I doubt many Western nations would. Perhaps that's why so many in the West would like to abandon Ukraine. Their vigor shames our indifference.Yeah, because of us. The former CIA head of European operations recently admitted as much in an interview, saying Biden never wanted to enable Ukraine to win for fear of nuclear escalation. (Link)As I said, in my opinion only the Ukrainians can decide if that time has come.

We get to decide if we continue sending aid, but nothing else.

There is also a catch to this noble sentiment of yours: Russia is hungry for the whole of Ukraine. If Putin feels emboldened by us, he'll soon go on the offensive once more and many more will die.

Appeasement makes aggressors more aggressive.

Some here (I don't mean you) have tried to discredit this truth as callous warmongering; but so far, they've utterly failed to explain why a peace at all costs is preferable to the status quo if such a peace risks laying the groundwork for the next war.

Both sides could go to their 14 year olds, it wont move the dial. Thus its a waste. It is. Teaching Russia a lesson isnt worth the 16 year olds, or the 15 year olds, as they will just be up against the same from Russia.

Ukraine has done brilliantly. Sadly I now beleieve that even 200 Abrams and 200 LEo2 and 50 himars, wouldnt really make a lot of difference. Because even if Ukr pushed the russians back, eventually Putin would play the nuke card, even with China etc telling him not to.

As to Biden, yes that probably was his or his advisors at least, view, but what a poor view that nuclear armed states can pretty much do what they want - plus Ukr is not a dumb country, they could build nukes in 2-3 years. or dirty bombs, or fizzlers.

At least Trump is engaged, Biden was not. Now we have to see what he wants to do. right now its the best/only game in town.

As to taking all of Ukraine, sure if the deal disarmed Ukr, only 50K police, but I cant see that happening, and I cant see that Putin has enough years left, to rebuild his army etc, and mount another attack, against a well armed and dug in Ukr army.

I'd think it more likely he takes whats left and has it on permanent manouvers next to Estonia or wherever.

 

[Chazman]

I don't think so. But let's assume you're right—so? I'm not even being ironic. I find myself unable to condemn a nation willing to fight to its last breath. I doubt many Western nations are cut from the same cloth. Perhaps that's why so many in the West would like to abandon Ukraine. Their vigour shames our indifference.Yeah, because of us. The former CIA head of European operations recently admitted as much in an interview, saying Biden never wanted to enable Ukraine to win for fear of nuclear escalation, so he only greenlit enough military aid from America and the West to slow the Russians down. (Link)As I said, in my opinion only the Ukrainians can decide if that time has come.

We get to decide if we continue sending aid, but nothing else.

There is also a catch to this noble sentiment of yours: Russia is hungry for the whole of Ukraine. If Putin feels emboldened by us, he'll soon go on the offensive once more and many more will die.

Appeasement makes aggressors more aggressive.

Some here (I don't mean you) have tried to discredit this truth as callous warmongering; but so far, they've utterly failed to explain why a peace at all costs is preferable to the status quo if such a peace risks laying the groundwork for the next war.

Because my preference is that Ukraine survives and thrives. Yes, I guess it IS their business if they want to fight to the last 14 year old. But what a shame to exterminate the entire population if there is another way.

 

[Musashi]

Because my preference is that Ukraine survives and thrives. Yes, I guess it IS their business if they want to fight to the last 14 year old. But what a shame to exterminate the entire population if there is another way.

There's no other way. Putain will rebuild his army and start some sh1t again after a few years.

 

[primer]

Besides he nuetered himself..Why didn't Putin take all of Georgia, was too much at the time and thought he'd get himself ostracized. Well appears the west will wash Putin of his sins readily for geopolitical, fear and fuel reasons. US in particular and does not even want the gas.
And now its a rump with soft pro Russian govt.
Taking all creates a Chechnya requiring heavy handed cops and occupation. Take a bit and those that hate shift off and things are settled.
He is better at playing us off against each other than actual war.

 

[muck]

@Fluff & @Chazman

By the way, where is this narrative of Ukraine's imminent self-extermination come from all of a sudden? Guys, you're talking about a country that, in the third year of a war for its very survival, still refuses to conscript men under the age of 25.

They make a conscious effort not to draft seven age cohorts, despite the fact the additional manpower would come in handy. It's absurd and almost malevolent to suggest a nation like that is on the verge of recklessly sending children to their deaths.

The worst figures I heard for Ukraine's losses amount to five per cent of the fighting force killed or missing in action. That's a terrible blood toll for sure; but for perspective, the British lost about 6.2% of their armies during the World War. Were they wrong to fight?

Right now, emigration is a far bigger threat to Ukraine's survival than military losses.

Besides, @Fluff, I'd argue that you've failed to show why arming Ukraine properly wouldn't make a difference. We haven't even tried so far, how can you be so sure then? As for Putin's nuclear threats, he makes them anyway. Let him. We don't have to believe him. Putin is worth $40 billion and so scared for his health he spent the 2020-2022 period mostly in isolation to avoid getting Covid-19. A man like that doesn't want to die in a nuclear storm.

He is better at playing us off against each other than actual war.

Well said. What Putin did over the last weekend was a masterstroke. He goaded Trump into breaking ranks with the Europeans, and made Macron, Merz, Starmer and Tusk look like fools.

That's Solovyov's take on Rossiya-1 (Russian state television) right now. He's relentlessly mocking the five of them.

 

[Musashi]

That’s übercool:

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[Mike1976]

That’s übercool:

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At least he didn't strike-out ...