Politics China's Economy and Politics

[Flagg]

Possible, or they may just buy porn mags?

There will certainly be a lot of leakage from that time.

It‘s probably quite safe to say the vast majority of the tine will go into other leisure activity rather than productive, but some will.

But since the gross number is so massive, it’s likely to have a solid ROI.

 

[Flagg]

they have been predicting Chinas decline for a decade now ,lol... wishful thinking.

I agree completely.

Same as the wishful decline of the US, despite the wisdom of the refugee and legal immigrant crowd.

Having said that, both countries face enormous problems.

The US growing and innovating its way out of debt is questionable.

China‘s demographics and local/regional debt are both brick walls that will require smashing thru.

 

[Junglejim]

I agree completely.

Same as the wishful decline of the US, despite the wisdom of the refugee and legal immigrant crowd.

Having said that, both countries face enormous problems.

The US growing and innovating its way out of debt is questionable.

China‘s demographics and local/regional debt are both brick walls that will require smashing thru.

The US decline is even far more wishful thinking. The 3 pillars of power by the US for me are: military, culture and corporate. None of those things comes even close to crumbling.

 

[morris]

Evergrande contagion fears send HK property stocks to biggest loss since May 2020

Investors are also concerned that Beijing's recent crackdown might extend to the property sector.

fortune.com

 

[Junglejim]

View attachment 337428

Evergrande contagion fears send HK property stocks to biggest loss since May 2020

Investors are also concerned that Beijing's recent crackdown might extend to the property sector.

fortune.com

that is what I wish, a property crash. property and land in Asia is so absurdly high, we actually look at the prces in Europe and go "damn I could have bought a manor instead of a 2 bedroom condo

 

[Picanha]

Yes, but the constructions sector is 1/4 th of Chinas GDP. Thats my whole point, these 5 years plans, controls, subordination demands towards the "free" market is at least peculiar if not a one way street we will see. Then the construction sector is so large it reminds m

I can't see this as a model for a future global leader. As soon as the authoritarian apparatschiks begin having fear they have all the power to act.

Don't know many entrepreneurs and smart folks who appreciate such behaviour. Except you keep the image of never ending profits alive but even this is taken away. In the end they say it themselves, not much place for foreign companies there after all ToT hads been accomplished.

Then this megalomaniac building spree. It seems it is all arbitrary no tangible planning. I mean they build 12 high rises to many in the example below. You have to organically plan things then readjust - work your way up incrementally - not sitting at your desk and imagine the perfect future, but communistst like to do that.

China used more concrete in 3 years than the US in a century. Albeit technology wise still not have reached the Wests level.

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[Picanha]

It’s worth looking at this single decision in context with the truly enormous scale of the Chinese population.

Taking just the children

This decision equates to approximately 50 million human labour year equivalents that can be redeployed away from part time leisure gaming and towards other potentially productive efforts such as learning Cyber, AI, Quantum, Computer Science, Life Science, Engineering, Entrepreneurship, etc.

Comparing that to the US:

Thats the entire US full time elementary and secondary student population full time equivalent.

That’s 1/3 the entire US workforce equivalent

The scale of it is simply enormous, and the return on investment for the redeployed time in terms of value creation/capture could easily be in the trillions.

I’m not a fan of such centralised totalitarian enforcement, but we may look back at this forcing function as the point of origin for tecton it change with what may be created in the wake of it.

The problem with this command style ruling technique is that the "leaders" know whats good for the populace and that they expect to achieve result X by doing action Y. This is not how it works.

In the end its your personal responsability my kids would also play the whole day and even forget how to speak in the process. They are just not allowed to.

Next step: It is not needed to have three trousers two are enough...and ther are only blue ones the other colours were just superflous.

Thats a systemic problem.

 

[Flagg]

The problem with this command style ruling technique is that the "leaders" know whats good for the populace and that they expect to achieve result X by doing action Y. This is not how it works.

In the end its your personal responsability my kids would also play the whole day and even forget how to speak in the process. They are just not allowed to.

Next step: It is not needed to have three trousers two are enough...and ther are only blue ones the other colours were just superflous.

Thats a systemic problem.

I don’t disagree.

But it’s worth considering that some really bad and some really good things will come out of this specific decision

 

[Picanha]

I'm a classic liberal so this idea is very appalling to me. It confirms how far they are willing to go.

This case may sound ridiculous at first. But it exposes the absolute power of the state. Mindboggling, I would instantly leave such a country.

But it won't solve the probem of an apparently apathetic society which obviously prefers to flee to online games (in masses) rather than enjoying their "freedom".

Do other countries experience similar problems? I mean online games must then be regulated worldwide to three hours.

A CCP bot will take over this duty.

They are only doctoring around the symptoms and ignoring the cause (which is very hard to solve - for them).

 

[Ivan le Fou]

Dow Plunges 600 Points To Lowest Level In Two Months As Experts Fear Great Recession-Style Collapse With Evergrande

The index is down 4% from an all-time high last month.

www.forbes.com

 

[Chazman]

The Chinese $2T Evergrande collapse, is the second contagion the CCP has inflicted on the world in 2 years.

Regular folks will lose everything and the CCP will devalue their currency to keep their house of cards economy from collapsing....for now.

 

[Chazman]

Also, zero chance that the CCP won't bail out Evergrande. Millions of people will get a very bad haircut.

 

[Chazman]

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[primer]

The protestors outside were ones who had actually lost their home. Inside, had to laugh.. apparently the execs had ordered KFC (blame the foreigners). They really had adopted the US system. Looking at the way the govt has been clamping down on the cowboy finance approach they were aware of the risk from this.
They pumped support during the ghost city crisis, they'll have to repeat that. Sad though...its our money we created by debt thanks to going to service economies that's getting burnt in these nazi socialist programs. They can expect we'll send them some more.

 

[Chazman]

The CCP house of cards economy cannot survive without foreign capital. Their debt to GDP ratio is at least 300%, most probably even worse. If foreign financiers sees the CCP as a poison pill, their economy will collapse.

 

[Chazman]

Well, it's as if someone read my previous post.

Kynikos' Jim Chanos: Evergrande shows fragility of China's economic model

Jim Chanos, founder and managing director at Kynikos Associates, said the debt crisis facing China-based property giant Evergrande highlights the fragility of the Chinese economy.

seekingalpha.com

 

[primer]

Thing is we all go broke together. They saved US/World ass after Lehmans, a very pathetic episode. With their spending and bond buying (cheers great grandchildren).
Biden pleaded with OPEC to open the valve to no avail. To save his popularity at the US gas station after he wrecked US energy independence... On the phone to Xi?
They can afford to let him sweat aswell. He is powerless yet again.
#Taliban #OPec #Xi #Wallsteet correction #I can't fill my truck up.

 

[Chazman]

Thing is we all go broke together. They saved US/World ass after Lehmans, a very pathetic episode. With their spending and bond buying (cheers great grandchildren).
Biden pleaded with OPEC to open the valve to no avail. To save his popularity at the US gas station after he wrecked US energy independence... On the phone to Xi?
They can afford to let him sweat aswell. He is powerless yet again.
#Taliban #OPec #Xi #Wallsteet correction #I can't fill my truck up.

It will take financial pain to decouple from the CCP economy. I suspect that this only the beginning.

 

[Ivan le Fou]

Why China's official data don't add up

Why China's official data don't add up

www.asiafinancial.com

Last week China released it’s much anticipated third quarter GDP, and along with it came fresh concerns of data accuracy.
While the 4.9% GDP growth missed expectations of over 5% growth, the real head-turner was Beijing’s revisions to its fixed asset investment (FAI) data for September 2019.
The revised numbers lowered the 2019 numbers, thereby boosting this year’s growth figures and third quarter GDP.

 

[Chazman]

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