In recent days, events in the Russian-Ukrainian war seem to be accelerating. The Soviet winter offensive had fizzled out by the end of spring. After the Vuhledar fiasco and the halting of the attacks around Bahmut, they tried to break the Ukrainian fortifications at Avdivka, which they had built eight years ago. When this failed, their efforts were limited to Bahmut. The Ukrainians abandoned the eastern side of the river that bisects the town and retreated to the high ground to the west of the settlement. The Russians attempted to end the siege before the Victory Day parade, but failed.
So much so that the exhausted Russian troops were pushed back at several points both inside and outside the town during the week. According to an entry by Austrian military historian Tom Cooper, the Ukrainians were helped by two factors. One was that they constantly rotated the forces defending the city, so that soldiers spent 4-5 days in the heaviest fighting and then were withdrawn - it is worth noting that the Russian success in Soledar was based on such a poorly executed exchange, but since then all the organisational and management problems appear to have been resolved. The Russians, on the other hand, did not withdraw their combat troops, but kept 'topping up' their losses, so that the combat effectiveness and morale of their troops steadily declined.
Another factor is that after the scarce supplies of the past months, the Ukrainian artillery had access to larger quantities of ammunition. It is not clear whether some Western supplies have arrived or whether they have started to release previously accumulated reserves.
The Ukrainians had already begun destroying Russian logistics bases a few weeks ago, foreshadowing that their much-touted offensive was entering the preparatory phase. It is important to underline that the successes of the past few days are also only preparatory manoeuvres, and that it is not worth expecting any major operations for the time being.
The exhausted and resupply-stressed Russian army has thus encountered increasing Ukrainian artillery activity, which has resulted in the Russian 72nd Mechanized Rifle Brigade abandoning its positions south of Bahmut, leaving a three-kilometer gap in the defensive lines. The Ukrainians quickly took advantage of this and pushed forward to the canal near Klychivka, eliminating the Russian bridgehead there. Wagner tried to salvage the situation, but their soldiers rushing to the front ran into the advancing Ukrainians and suffered heavy losses before they could stabilise the defences at the canal. It was like parrying an opponent's knee with one's face...
The incident was reported by Wagner's owner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, a constant critic of the Russian military, and later confirmed by other sources. Prigozhin has, in any case, been voicing his views on the state of the war in daily outbursts of anger for weeks, regularly berating the military leadership for not providing them with the right equipment.
Given the position of Putin's former waiter, this is hardly surprising. Wagner started the war with around 10,000 experienced soldiers and then recruited 40,000 more prisoners from the prisons. Most of his veteran soldiers must have died in the last year, and his inmates were massacred by Bahmut. Prigozhin did his best to capture Bahmut, but he failed to deliver and Wagner's fighting strength has been reduced to a fraction of what it was a year ago. Prigozhin was thus caught between two stools, his Russian political position collapsed, while the force that had provided him with strength was weakened. If he withdraws what troops he has left, he will be a traitor; if he stays, all his strength will be gone. He has little recourse but to blame the military leadership, but they will have to wait until the Ukrainians have blown Wagner to smithereens.
Not only around Bahmut, but also along several sections of the southern front, the Ukrainians began to poke at the Russian defences. At the same time, the British have today announced that they are handing over 250 km-range Storm Shadow cruise missiles to the Ukrainian army. This capability is sufficient to reach the entire occupied territory, including Crimea.
The Ukrainian leadership has been constantly talking up the offensive, often with contradictory start dates, while the Russians are now clearly talking about defence. The hushing up of the offensive is a constant psychological pressure for the Russians, who have not been able to show any results other than a single success in Soledar in the last year, while they are already equipping 70-year-old T-55s with chicken nets to make up for their loss of equipment.
In the coming weeks, the fighting is expected to intensify. The Ukrainians are certain to continue destroying Russian supply lines, while localised reconnaissance attacks are expected along the entire length of the front. These may reveal where it is worth building up a dominant position and keep the Russian leadership in a state of permanent uncertainty.
It would be wild, if the main counter offensive would indeed be in Bakhmut and succeed.
