ll analysts now agree that Putin wanted Ukraine to collapse, but Ukraine did not collapse. The last card in Putin's pre-war policy was to recognise the breakaway provinces, and then to attack. (Really, has anyone heard of the governments of the breakaway republics lately? No? What a surprise...)
The launch of the war put another deck of cards on the table.
The rules of this game are different. Of course, Europe still needs Russian gas, and there are other European economic interests in continuing to have a Russian-Western economic relationship. However, the political options are extremely limited, at least on the surface, and there are no longer any nuances to play with. Meanwhile, political opportunities are opening up that we might have thought unthinkable a few months ago, or even a few weeks ago.
One example: everyone knows that war usually brings a strengthening of the dollar, and US defence companies are breaking out the champagne. Did anyone think that about Germany? Because Olaf Scholz's announcement at the weekend of a drastic increase in their defence budget is not only interesting from a military point of view. Of at least equal importance is the fact (which Friedrich Merz immediately jumped on) that it is a budget spending spree. Something the German finance ministry was reluctant to do before the pandemic. Sufficit and break-even budgets, that's what they liked. Compared to this, the Germans start funding their own military companies? Not the usual scenario.
Fishing in political turmoil will change many things that have been stalemated. That's why the Poles are quietly backing out of the rule of law conflict, that's why Orban, who was fawning at Putin's feet two weeks ago, is joining the EU sanctions queue. Many things that are politically unacceptable will suddenly become acceptable, and without attracting attention in the noise.
But this does not help Ukraine and Zelensky.
But it still does not put Putin in an ideal situation. All right, stop the "soft warfare" and carry out a regular siege of Kharkiv and Kiev. This will require many, many more days (5-10 in our case) at least, because it is not a "special forces storm in, do something and come out" operation, but a systematic house-to-house advance in a metropolitan environment. A lot of artillery attacks, which are bound to result in hundreds and thousands of civilian casualties. You have to cordon off Kiev and its environs, then go in and clean it up, while it is full of soldiers armed with anti-tank missiles, Dragoons and Stingers.
So it is possible to take Kiev, but it is a tactical question. And above tactical issues there are always strategic and political issues. The first three days did not see the collapse of Ukraine, but they did see a much more united Western political response than expected. The 'we'll send 5,000 helmets' business suddenly became 'we'll send Panzerfausts, Stingers, machine guns'. So, if Putin takes Kiev and Kharkiv becomes Kharkov again, he will have two bleeding cities shot to pieces and a Western Ukraine where tens of thousands of anti-tank weapons will have arrived by now. What does he do with occupied eastern Ukraine? Annex it? Make a puppet state of eastern Ukraine? Where someone's first job will be to blow up Heydrich there? All while losing tens of billions of dollars a day? All this with an industry dependent on Western technology?
So, in this new card game, we have yet again a situation where the West has plenty of room to raise the stakes, while Putin's next chip is a total siege of Kiev and Kharkiv at a total cost of hundreds of billions of dollars. Western currencies (the dollar and euro) are strengthening, the ruble is falling. A Ukrainian collapse or the death of Zelensky would be vital for him. Yes, but the latter might come too late, he would make a martyr of him.
So the question is not whether Putin can occupy Kiev. He can. The question is at what price. And that price is rising by the minute. And of its two "card partners", Ukraine has already called the all-in, and the Western countries can raise small ones. Every few hours, another country announces 500 more missiles or so (there were even reports of MiG-29s last night), while Putin is left with two options. To launch a decisive attack or to retreat. Nobody is sure anymore (got the faces of the two marshals from yesterday?) that Putin is playing with sense. This is what is really worrying.
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