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- May 1, 2020
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In Ye Olden Days when the big fish surfaced all of the details had already been worked out.Who is under the most pressure for a deal Friday? By far, Putin.
3.5 years, perhaps a million casualties, maybe trillions of Rubles, an economy teetering on collapse - and for what? A failed war in stalemate. And if no deal and the war continues indefinitely, again what? How does he justify it? I know some feel he is invincible, but he certainly doesn't have the free reign of say a Stalin. There are some political cracks starting. The South Caucuses are no longer under Russian control but under US, thanks to Putin's Ukraine distraction. The fact that the US sanctioned India, a large and powerful country, (not some insignificant $hithole), last week is a crafted pre- summit message to Putin. The message is, we are serious about destroying your economy.
So, Putin has things to consider. I don't believe he has the political capital to continue this war indefinitely. His strategy in the past 6 months has been to pretend to negotiate while trying to make advances in Ukraine. Again, he's failed. As cool as he tries to look, he needs a deal - badly.
Trump on the other hand could simply walk away, and it would not affect the life of an average American one bit. Sure, Trump has pledged to bring an end to this war, but if unsuccessful, more or less, "oh well".
Whatever happens, Zelensky must "appear" to be vehemently against any deal. I totally expect that.
With all that said, I'd imagine the bulk of what will be discussed has already been agreed to.
And it's also interesting to me that with all the absolutely strident Trump hate I see from many of you here, it's not the Europeans meeting with Putin. So...in that way, Trump is your man, like him or not.
Welp, we'll see how things go....
I'm not really sure that is what is at work here.