Politics German Politics & News

[muck]

The Christian Democrats have offered to enter into a coalition with Scholz's Social Democrats, even under him as Chancellor, if he would only dismiss his current cabinet. And that is even though they would win an election by 15 percent points were one to be called tomorrow. That's how desparate everyone is for a reset. I suspect that a veto of no confidence will be called within the next nine months. All of East Germany will go to the ballots next year, and it'll be a bloodbath for the current administration.

 

[muck]

The Liberal Party has scheduled a vote among its ~80.000 members on whether or not their ministers should leave the Scholz administration. It's a non-binding vote, but realistically speaking the results cannot be ignored.

Fingers' crossed!

 

[Redav]

We're now talking tax hikes, because of cause we are.

Welcome to Portugal

 

[Musashi]

The German government carries on with its self:damaging policy, so suport for AfD will increase even more.

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[muck]

^ Never heard of this. Can't find anything about it in national media. There was an evacuation flight carrying family members from former military interpreters, though not on Friday, is that what they're talking about?

On another note, the Scholz cabinet has somehow clobbed together a budget, with some experts saying this one is also unconstitutional. We'll see how long it lasts. The opposition called on Scholz to propose a vote of confidence, which he boastfully shrugged off. Oh well.

 

[av405]

@muck What are the general local thoughts on Scholz? As an American outsider, he comes across as a bit goofy and late to the party on certain things, but willing to make decisions and say things that Merkel never did during her eternity in power.

 

[Musashi]

@muck What are the general local thoughts on Scholz? As an American outsider, he comes across as a bit goofy and late to the party on certain things, but willing to make decisions and say things that Merkel never did during her eternity in power.

His approval rate is very slow and each party belonging to the ruling coalition is on a slippery slope.

POLITICO Poll of Polls — German polls, trends and election news for Germany

POLLING FROM ACROSS EUROPE. UPDATED DAILY. Germany — European election 2024 results Check European election 2024 results for all EU countries. READ IN GERMAN / AUF DEUTSCH LESEN Jump to: ▫️ Na…

www.politico.eu

The German government shut down nuclear power plants against the German people’s wish and opened coal ones.
All of these 3 parties won the last elections in Germany by incident that was the flood.
Likewise, Geert Wilders won the elections in Holland by incident that are pro-Palestinian protests.

 

[muck]

@av405
Our Anglo-Polish friend is very correct.

Or let's just put it the following way: The minority leader, which Olaf Scholz had narrowly beaten in 2021's elections with his own Social Democrats, is now as big as Scholz' entire three-party coalition government.

His approval ratings are some of the worst in history.

In 2021, Germany voted 51.7 to 48.3 in favour of the left side of the aisle. If Germany went to the polls tomorrow, it'd vote 61 to 39 in favour of the right side, with up to 20% of that margin going to the radical right.

That's how unpopular Scholz is.

The Christian Democrats look especially promising right now.

Their leader is Friedrich Merz, a(n actually) conservative stock broker who was ousted by Angela Merkel and her clique in the early 2000's and is now on his redemption arc. He's just got done putting the blow-torch to the Merkel-era crap in the CDU's manifesto, and I'm happy.

They want to reintodruce nuclear energy; reintroduce conscription; raise the defence budget to a figure north of €100 bn per annum; prevent refugees from entering the EU, rather processing them in their home lands so as to be able to refuse anyone who doesn't meet the criteria of actual persecution; refuse citizenships to people who refuse to pledge allegiance to the Constitution and Israel's right to exist; and many good things more.

Now, I'm under no illusion as to the fact that not every point in that manifesto will be implemented fully (or even at all); Merz can't form a coalition with the only party who'd subscribe to every single one of his proposals, namely the AfD; but even a watered-down version of that manifesto would be good for this country.

I just hope that the people who (rightfully) felt betrayed by Merkel's self-serving opportunism will still give the CDU a chance, because every vote given to those traitors from the AfD would be a vote against Germany and only soften the left's crash landing come election time.

 

[av405]

@av405
Our Anglo-Polish friend is very correct.

A very thorough explanation, thank you. Forgive me but I am not very knowledgeable on the election mechanisms in your country; when could/would another election for the Chancellor's office occur?

 

[muck]

Germany is a parliamentary republic. The people chose their representatives (Federal Diet) by way of a two-pronged system; one half is chosen directly by first-past-the-poll-voting, the other half comes from a list of candidates drawn up by the political parties themselves.

As of now, the next general elections will be held on September 26 2025.

Political convention dictates that the leader of the party who comes first is given the first opportunity to form a government (which will almost invariably be a coalition government), but strictly speaking every party in parliament can try to do the same. Their proposal will be put to the vote and whosoever gets the most votes is elected Chancellor by parliament.

Germany is also a federal republic and has a bicameral parliament, though. The upper house (Federal Council) consists of the envoys of the 16 state governments, so the Chancellor needs to have an eye out on the state elections (of which there'll be some prior to September 2025). You can't rule this country without a majority in both houses, and if Scholz loses the Federal Council he'll probably call it quits.

In contrast to the systems employed by many other countries, Germany's parliament cannot actually dissolve itself. But the Chancellor can propose a vote of confidence and ask his caucus to vote against him, after which the (largely ceremonial) Federal President can finally dissolve parliament and call a new election.

That's provided his coalition doesn't break up even before that, mind you. The (likewise left-leaning) Greens are a somewhat compatible partner to Scholz and his Social Democrats, but the (centre-right) Liberal Party is hating itself right now for ever having entered that coalition in the first place. All that's keeping them inside is the fear of being kicked out of parliament if elections were held tomorrow.

But if their plight continues, they might propose a vote of no confidence or support one proposed by the opposition, in which case the next Chancellor will be whosoever parliament elects instead of Scholz. It's happened before (albeit only once).

Anything can happen, of course, but knowing what I know now I'd be astonished if this administration survived a full term.

 

[Hiryu2.0]

Hamas operates all over Germany, investigation finds

Authorities in Germany recently outlawed Hamas, and it turns out that it is not only for Israel's sake; Investigation reveals that the terror group has a network of operatives all over the country, including German citizens, who raise money for it and incite against Israel

www.ynetnews.com

 

[av405]

Germany is a parliamentary republic. The people chose their representatives (Federal Diet) by way of a two-pronged system; one half is chosen directly by first-past-the-poll-voting, the other half comes from a list of candidates drawn up by the political parties themselves.

Great explanation, thank you again for taking the time to answer my questions.

 

[muck]

You're welcome.

 

[Redav]

Germany: Far-right AfD wins first city mayoral election – DW – 12/17/2023

Tim Lochner saw off the CDU candidate to become the far-right Alternative for Germany's first city mayor. Under the German mayoral system, some large towns have city mayors.

www.dw.com

 

[Redav]

I was reading muck's post above and came across this article

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz hits record low in new polling – DW – 12/08/2023

Germany's ruling Social Democrats are in a bad way. The latest polling shows how turned off voters are by the center-left and the man it chose to run the country.

www.dw.com

 

[Redav]

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[Picanha]

The energy was never cheap for Joe Ordinary.

The industry just had this plan of not investing nor doing any meaningful efforts to replace artificially cheap Russian gas because it presumed it would stay forever like this. There is a special price for manufacturers way lower what you and I pay.

Although I think the bottom was reached, manufacturing PMIs are still low but the downward trend is broken and it's rising with expected growth in 2024 and 2025.

 

[Mike1976]

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This is what happens when you put all your chips on unreliable sources like solar, wind and a deranged dictator.

 

[muck]

The Liberal Party has scheduled a vote among its ~80.000 members on whether or not their ministers should leave the Scholz administration. It's a non-binding vote, but realistically speaking the results cannot be ignored.

Fingers' crossed!

Update: Sadly, they have narrowly voted in favour of remaining in the coalition. Which is extremely telling of their fear of being reduced to irrelevance, 'cause their party chairman literally said he'd ignore the vote since it wasn't binding anyway. How such utter contempt of democratic principles couldn't prompt a card-carrying liberal to vote against him for that line alone is almost unfathomable to me.

 

[Musashi]

Update: Sadly, they have narrowly voted in favour of remaining in the coalition. Which is extremely telling of their fear of being reduced to irrelevance, 'cause their party chairman literally said he'd ignore the vote since it wasn't binding anyway. How such utter contempt of democratic principles couldn't prompt a card-carrying liberal to vote against him for that line alone is almost unfathomable to me.

It's obvious, staying in the coalition hurts FDP the most.
Let's compare the support during the general elections in 2021 to the current support.
FDP: 11.5% -> 5%. That's a decrease of 56.5%.
SPD: 25.7% -> 15%. That's a decrease of 45.5%.
Gründiots: 14.8% -> 13%. That's a decrease of 12%.

The conclusion is very simple: although FDP is the least influential party in the coalition, the partners drag it down.