Politics French politics thread

[Mike1976]

Are the French courts really such kangaroo courts, that they can be encouraged to give arbitrary sentenced?

In Romania and Moldova I can believe, but in France?

I assume this is the first step, and can be appealed?

Personally I don't want corrupt people as my representatives, even if our views align.

The verdict can be appealed and is suspended until the appeal has been handled, but the electoral ban is still in effect and must be appealed separately which likely won't be possible before the next presidential elections with sufficient campaigning time.

 

[Ivan le Fou]

Sentences are, also, not really arbitrary.

Charges can come with a minimum sentence, but in the end it is mostly at the discretion of the judge based on what both sides are asking for.

One could argue, in her case, the sentence is a bit harsh compared to what has been done by others. But the justice system does not work on what-aboutisms.

What is interesting however is the reactions this decision triggered, be it abroad but also in France itself and especially coming from political parties profoundly opposed to the RN.

 

[Telmar]

I think judges tend to have a big interest on the wrongdoings of right wing candidates which is the case for Sarkozy but also when they charged Fillon with a light speed investigation before the election in 2016.

But the RN embezzles 3 mullion Euros of taxpayer money and admit they did, and Marine le Pen is penalized with uneligibility, a decision that she voted for herself in the early 2000´s so it is a kind of karma.

And the RN is far from beat. It is not a one person cult and now has solid roots.

 

[Nansouty]

We are entering troubled waters, or more exactly, we keep sailing in these... The latest development of our troubled political situation : Mr Bayrou, currently the Prime Minister (well, at least in name... *sigh*), has called for a confidence vote on September 8th. The interesting bit is he's using article 49.1 of the Constitution, in short, the opposition needs to have simply more votes to make the government fall, and consequently, abstaining will not matter this time. So we have Le Pen (143 MPs), Melanchon (80 MPs), the Green and the Communists (some 40 MPs all told) who have declared they will vote against the confidence... The government supporters are about 150, leaving mostly the Socialists and the traditional right with a difficult choice : support the very, very unpopular Bayrou and feel the electoral consequences, or let him fall, and allow the constitutional crisis (my take, actually, but I think it will come to this) to happen... If I weren't to be back at work by then, I'd be stocking on a mighty lot of popcorn.

 

[Ivan le Fou]

We are entering troubled waters, or more exactly, we keep sailing in these... The latest development of our troubled political situation : Mr Bayrou, currently the Prime Minister (well, at least in name... *sigh*), has called for a confidence vote on September 8th. The interesting bit is he's using article 49.1 of the Constitution, in short, the opposition needs to have simply more votes to make the government fall, and consequently, abstaining will not matter this time. So we have Le Pen (143 MPs), Melanchon (80 MPs), the Green and the Communists (some 40 MPs all told) who have declared they will vote against the confidence... The government supporters are about 150, leaving mostly the Socialists and the traditional right with a difficult choice : support the very, very unpopular Bayrou and feel the electoral consequences, or let him fall, and allow the constitutional crisis (my take, actually, but I think it will come to this) to happen... If I weren't to be back at work by then, I'd be stocking on a mighty lot of popcorn.

What prompted this call, do you think?

 

[Jake84]

An apparent second round though not calling itself that of the Yellow Vest/jackets movement is supposedly starting on September 10th in the purpose to block the country; ironically enough the country is already led by a blockhead full of himself changing mind like clothes; more interested in his little EU shenanigans than the people who made twice the mistake to elect him.

Problem is say movement initially free of politics and leaders has before it even started been hijacked by the LFI whackos meaning that I won’t put much money on it. The mayhem, chaos… Le grand Soir. Good luck with that.

I believe we’re in for a long, dead end, no confidence govt haul.

 

[Nansouty]

New developments : the Socialists will vote against Bayrou, which means he's already toast, if nothing changes.

What prompted this call, do you think?

I don't think it's the threat of the 10th September : lots of posts on Twitter, but in real life, I don't know anyone going to move, especially after, as Jake84 pointed out, Melenchon so shamelessly hijacked the movement... Furthermore, we've already been there before, and Macron's still there, he's even been reelected *sigh*

But answer Ivan's question, I must say I really don't know. So let's break out the tinfoil hat and imagine that Macron is trying to cause enough chaos so he can activate the infamous article 16, which grants the president full powers.

More seriously, Le Pen is calling for a second dissolution of the Parliament. Macron could be hard pressed to avoid it, and see Le Pen -or Bardella- win the election. Also, I still remember, however, that letter signed by tens of retired generals (but still very influential) a few years ago, saying the Army would not sit idly in certain circumstances... As you see, the future is really murky. Interesting times ahead, if I may quote dear old Kong Fuzi...

 

[Nansouty]

Things moving on (BFM is one of the main news channel on French TV, and one of the biggest supporters of Macron by the way...)

Bardella, the leader of the National Rally (who will replace ineligible Le Pen in an election), calls for Macron to dissolve the Parliament or to step down. However painful it may be to paint it this way, you cannot deny the leader of the main opposition party has called for the President to step down.
Typical unapologetic Macron, BTW, shows no regret for the ballooning deficit : he acknowledges he "spent a lot", but "to protect us", and we will have to "work hard & spare to pay for it". While there is no denying he's correct in the last part of the proposition, he's living in illusion if he thinks most people trust him to lead this policy. A recent poll stated that 67% (!!!) want him to step down if Bayrou loses the confidence vote. Which, according to all experts, is ascertain as your getting burned if you step into the fire.

 

[Ivan le Fou]

Ah yes, the usual "I totally messed up, and I am taking full responsibility for it. This is my act of contrition. And now, with that said, it is your time to take your own responsibility, you will have to make efforts and tighten your belt for the betterment of the country."

Incompetent government does not know, or can't be bothered, to balance a budget (or anything), invests in pointless pet-projects (that inevitably and systematically fail), etc... and then they send us the bill. They did their part by pussy-footing around the fact they are the ones who messed up.

For how many years have we been told that kind of thing? Chirac? Mitterrand? Giscard?


Oh and, by the way... though France's government debt has reached a record €3.3 trillion, 54% of it is held by foreign holders.

 

[Nansouty]

We're 2 days before a vote of no-confidence is called by the Prime Minister in parliament. There isn't the life chance of a snowball in hell that he'll survive it. More interestingly, some recent polls show that Macron's popularity has slumped to 15% (Hollande's record low level of popularity is not that far, at 13%. Will Macron go even lower? *chuckles*) and that an astounding 58% want him to step down if the government doesn't pass the no-confidence vote next Monday (remember, the very one that they are sure to lose... )
But, but, this is not how things will work unfortunately. Macron will try to hang on to power & cobble together another lame minority government. And he has good chances to achieve it, as the Socialists, in an unbelievable bout of masochism, are stepping forward. We'll see if they can pull it, and how long they can hang on, as everyone will want to have a go at slapping their face.
Meanwhile, I'll follow Beaumarchais' advice, an 18th century playwright who made his character Figaro say "Je m'empresse de rire de tout avant d'être obligé d'en pleurer" (I hurry to laugh of everything before I'm compelled to cry about it)

 

[Nansouty]

As expected, Bayrou lost the no-confidence he called and his government must now resign. What wasn't expected, though, was the tally of the vote : 364 MPs voted against the confidence vs 180, totaling more that the members of the leftist alliance and the far right. Which means that a sizeable part of Macron's "non-opponents" has joined the opposition.
Once more, France is without a government, and (I may be wrong) little prospect of getting a new one soon. At a time when the state of the economy calls for urgent reforms. I hope Macron draws the same conclusions as I do : he needs to step down. Little hope of that though.
Meanwhile, stocking up on more popcorn.

 

[Ivan le Fou]

As expected, Bayrou lost the no-confidence he called and his government must now resign. What wasn't expected, though, was the tally of the vote : 364 MPs voted against the confidence vs 180, totaling more that the members of the leftist alliance and the far right. Which means that a sizeable part of Macron's "non-opponents" has joined the opposition.
Once more, France is without a government, and (I may be wrong) little prospect of getting a new one soon. At a time when the state of the economy calls for urgent reforms. I hope Macron draws the same conclusions as I do : he needs to step down. Little hope of that though.
Meanwhile, stocking up on more popcorn.

Heh... sure France isn't about to get a new government soon, but does it matter really?

By that I mean: with or without a government, what difference does it make in the end?

As for Macron stepping down, though that's what decency would require, he is no Giscard d'Estaing and won't hand the power over.

In two days the LFI and other leftards are calling for some kind of "general blockade of everything" à-la Gillets-Jaunes. But without any clear message, any demands and, most of all, without the spontaneity. It's going to be a very performative mess.

 

[muck]

The Euro is coming under pressure now. This isn't good.

 

[Ivan le Fou]

 

[Nansouty]

Not sure how much LFI can control what's coming. A general election will be a disaster for them, given their impopularity and the end of their coalition with the Socialists.
Meanwhile, Bayrou stepped down & Macron tried to break through in force and named Lecornu Prime minister. An outspoken gay and a died-in-the_wool Macronist, Lecornu has no chances to gather a majority... This is move sure to inflame even more the opponents about to demonstrate tomorrow, which could be the final straw convincing economy deciders to call for Macron's resignation. Popcorn time. Tomorrow's a day off, I'll watch the unfolding mess on TV.

 

[Nansouty]

Demonstrations were important, but really, not extraordinary. From my neck of the woods, everything went normally. I feel a bit sheepish, since I'd refilled my tank yesterday in anticipation. Anyways, when you see scenes like these (a Palestine flag toting pallytard tearing a French flag from the hands of a fellow demonstrator), you can guess a lot of people didn't want to be associated with LFI and abstained.

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So, we're back to where we were yesterday evening : a pure Macronist prime minister, who can only rule if the 2 opposition blocks hate each other more than the government and don't mingle their ballots to topple it. Which will be complicated, as the RN (far right) stated they would not compromise with the government if they didn't govern according to their program. Lecornu -BTW, in French it means "the horned one" -will find the ride really rocky, more like what you experience in a rodeo.
More popcorn on the way.

 

[Jake84]

That about sums things up, show up with the French tricolor at any protests nowadays and get kicked out at best. Palos flags everywhere, some Lebanese otherwise not the utter mayhem that were rightly warning about the authorities prior. As we discussed; as soon as France Unbowed/LFI far left leaders took over the protests: it was bound to fail.

 

[Nansouty]

Agreed. Not much to expect from them. In the end, though, Macron is weakened. And LFI won't be long to understand that their pro-Palos is cutting them from the main population. Looking forward to see their faces after the next election is held, they might lose a lot of seats... and a lot of money since state subsidies are given according to your electoral weight.

 

[Ivan le Fou]

Agreed. Not much to expect from them. In the end, though, Macron is weakened. And LFI won't be long to understand that their pro-Palos is cutting them from the main population. Looking forward to see their faces after the next election is held, they might lose a lot of seats... and a lot of money since state subsidies are given according to your electoral weight.
View attachment 538901

Perhaps Meluch is starting to realize he courted the wrong people.

LFI tente de bloquer la parution d’un livre sur ses liens avec les islamistes

Plon, qui publie bientôt « Les Complices du mal », du journaliste franco-syrien Omar Youssef Souleimane, a reçu une mise en demeure à trois semaines de la sortie de l’ouvrage.

www.lepoint.fr

But it is too late already, at this point it is a mere attempt from him at saving face and his own "prestige".

These groups and people who catered the favors of are now, not only in, but also in position of influence and power. With their ideas, opinions and views made mainstream in the country.

 

[Redav]

Mícron ruling the French Caliphate