Politics How likely is a civil war in Europe by the end of the 21st century?

[Jake84]

I haven’t posted in this thread I started in months but I’d like to say that I appreciate you guys have been able to have an adult conversation about it, although my OP was maybe a tad provocative to some, and I understand this.

Let’s keep the civil discussion going then. It’s interesting and different viewpoint such as some people outside the old continent are welcome too.

Thanks.

 

[bfc1001]

I was playing around with ideas of civil war in Europe myself for roughly 5 to 6 years now. Since it feels like the only plausible conclusion to the mess the current elite created.

But now I'm also seeing trends that the nationalistic hardline parties are gaining public momentum in EU, not just as a response to migrant policies, but also as a response to NATO-aligned proxies attempting to jeopardize relations with Russia in trade and security.
Just looking at overall developments across EU today, the union is relentlessly stockpiling huge problems with no solutions in sight. Poland's and Hungary's rebellion against EU's elite, Turkey's successful attempts to pressure and humiliate EU, the disastrous failure of the Ukraine project, the likely upcoming war between Moldova and Russia (with semi-Romanian involvement), Baltics' utmost success at destroying their trade relations with their neighbors, and now the fairly questionable status of EU citizenship and Schengen zone as the Pandemic pretty much buried those into the ground, at least until the quarantine is lifted... it appears to me that if the EU is to survive by the end of the 21st century, it will have to undergo a very substantial transformation. And there will be a naturally strong push towards that transformation regardless of what anyone wants. This transformation will begin with the victory of nationalist/opposition parties in key west-EU states. And this slightly changes my vision of the future already. As originally, when I started envisioning civil war, I didn't consider it to be possible for the opposition to assume positions of power. How it will progress from there is hard to say, but if my forecast is anywhere near accurate, then before we'll be seeing any civil wars (if any at all) we'll first see a new refreshed elite engaging in Nazi-inspired treatment of incompatible cultures.

Alternatively, we can consider a different transformation scenario, in which the current EU establishment doubles-down on its long-term goal of the EU integration project, which foresees transforming EU into a United States of Europe federal-style country. And once it has all the mandates and tools of influence in place, it can crack down on any internal or external problem in sight. But at this point I see this development pretty implausible, as the grip over east/central European member states is loosening as things stand today at least.

They ll be no civil war in Europe that's for sure . If people decide to forego their freedoms it will be by consent and I find that a greater worry than any traditional stand up war .

 

[Ivan le Fou]

Would war in EU between EU members count as civil war, what about between NATO members or war in Cyprus or Balkans?

A war between NATO members is more likely than actual intra-European civil wars, I believe.

As far as I know, and apart from what took place in France a few years ago (ZAD), the only thing we are seeing are protests turning into riots.
But nothing to the point of "civil war" (though, one could argue that the Yellow Jacket movement was "relatively" close at some point).

 

[morris]

They ll be no civil war in Europe that's for sure

I think you mean western Europe only.

 

[Jake84]

But nothing to the point of "civil war" (though, one could argue that the Yellow Jacket movement was "relatively" close at some point).

I had sympathy for the Yellow jacket movement at some point and I expressed it clearly on TheMess then.

It’s no longer the case, I sympathize with your typical French cashier, blue collar, care assistants not making a whole lot of money and then getting heavily taxed because of the carbon tax which broke the camel back then.

However have lost all sympathy since. I found disturbing that many of the protesters lost a eye, a hand because of the police and the orders they had gotten, but these days for what’s left of this movement they are essentially after the Police and found a common cause with the suburban thugs like Traoré and the likes.

This movement was flawed since the beginning. I think Macron is greatly responsible of it, but I can no longer approve of them.

 

[nicememe]

Regardless of what are the prospects for a civil war right now, as they say - never say never.

It is flawed to assume that civil wars spark entirely out of public discontent and/or hatred towards the government or a faction of society.
Civil war in material terms is only possible if a powerful element of the society backs it with big money and resources. A civil war is a war, and war is an expensive endeavor. In this case, it must be either rich clans funneling money and weapons into usurping power in the country, or foreign countries doing the same to replace an undesirable regime.
You can't succeed at sparking a civil war just by relying on pitchforks as your argument, it doesn't work in the 21st century. Society and government apparatuses are way more complex today than they were before. Information/media works differently from how it worked before. And globalization makes it possible for many to escape a crisis within a country simply by emigrating elsewhere.
So for my side, the question would be: is it possible that wealthy elements within or outside of X European country could fund a civil war any time within the next 90 years? No idea.

 

[Telmar]

I had sympathy for the Yellow jacket movement at some point and I expressed it clearly on TheMess then.

It’s no longer the case, I sympathize with your typical French cashier, blue collar, care assistants not making a whole lot of money and then getting heavily taxed because of the carbon tax which broke the camel back then.

However have lost all sympathy since. I found disturbing that many of the protesters lost a eye, a hand because of the police and the orders they had gotten, but these days for what’s left of this movement they are essentially after the Police and found a common cause with the suburban thugs like Traoré and the likes.

This movement was flawed since the beginning. I think Macron is greatly responsible of it, but I can no longer approve of them.

I had sympathy for them at the very beginning as well. It then was stolen by leftists, and issues with police started.

The present yellow vesters have stolen the main issue: "excess taxation, difficulty to make an honest living..." by "we want more government money" and "Macron is mean". And provoking the police is the main ambition of the "protesters".

 

[BCNTM]

Would war in EU between EU members count as civil war, what about between NATO members or war in Cyprus or Balkans?

you mean us and France

 

[BCNTM]

I had sympathy for the Yellow jacket movement at some point and I expressed it clearly on TheMess then.

It’s no longer the case, I sympathize with your typical French cashier, blue collar, care assistants not making a whole lot of money and then getting heavily taxed because of the carbon tax which broke the camel back then.

However have lost all sympathy since. I found disturbing that many of the protesters lost a eye, a hand because of the police and the orders they had gotten, but these days for what’s left of this movement they are essentially after the Police and found a common cause with the suburban thugs like Traoré and the likes.

This movement was flawed since the beginning. I think Macron is greatly responsible of it, but I can no longer approve of them.

Problem you have Jake is that what turns out to be a peaceful protest against something that needs looking at is hijacked by the ultra left or ultra right and they use it to mask their own violent ends

Same as when they were protesting about university fees in the UK - all the nutters piled in

I still don't understand why the governments don't have military groups as backup for the police - lock the area down and pick them all up

 

[Jake84]

Problem you have Jake is that what turns out to be a peaceful protest against something that needs looking at is hijacked by the ultra left or ultra right and they use it to mask their own violent ends

Same as when they were protesting about university fees in the UK - all the nutters piled in

I still don't understand why the governments don't have military groups as backup for the police - lock the area down and pick them all up

Both you and telmar are right.

Main problem is while the police NEEDS to go harshly against both far left and far right idiots, they want to avoid at any cost any fatality among the protesters - even the more radical of them.

I think you understand well the shitshow it’d trigger if anyone was killed by the police during a riot/protest. Injured, even severely so is more “acceptable” so the police has to show restraint and also because our polices both that of the UK or France aren’t the Gestapo, their job is to protect and to serve and enforce the law when it’s needed. It’s not to harm and much less kill citizens.

 

[BCNTM]

Both you and telmar are right.

Main problem is while the police NEEDS to go harshly against both far left and far right idiots, they want to avoid at any cost any fatality among the protesters - even the more radical of them.

I think you understand well the shitshow it’d trigger if anyone was killed by the police during a riot/protest. Injured, even severely so is more “acceptable” so the police has to show restraint and also because our polices both that of the UK or France aren’t the Gestapo, their job is to protect and to serve and enforce the law when it’s needed. It’s not to harm and much less kill citizens.

To be honest I don't agree - the world would be a lot better place without some of the real hard core left/right idiots

Perhaps a few of them dying would make the world a better place - they think it's a game with no consequence and spread their poison

 

[Jake84]

To be honest I don't agree - the world would be a lot better place without some of the real hard core left/right idiots

Perhaps a few of them dying would make the world a better place - they think it's a game with no consequence and spread their poison

I disagree too, because the world would be a better place without neither commies or Nazis but that’d be killing ten thousand of people in Europe and not only “a few”.

Problem is since politicide is not a thing of our countries, we just can’t. If at least they’d be sentenced to long term prison time. It’d be nice too, but for that one they need to commit a crime and be put on trial. Forced incarceration based on your political point of view is dictatorship, sadly.

 

[BCNTM]

I disagree too, because the world would be a better place without neither commies or Nazis but that’d be killing ten thousand of people in Europe and not only “a few”.

Problem is since politicide is not a thing of our countries, we just can’t. If at least they’d be sentenced to long term prison time. It’d be nice too, but for that one they need to commit a crime and be put on trial. Forced incarceration based on your political point of view is dictatorship, sadly.

I just get fed up with people smashing windows and anything else for their own twisted ends - that they are never going to get anyway. They just need to be made to desist and if they die in the process then hard luck.

Perhaps if politicians took notice of peaceful protest and actually did what they were appointed for then you would see more peaceful protest

 

[Ivan le Fou]

To be honest I don't agree - the world would be a lot better place without some of the real hard core left/right idiots

Perhaps a few of them dying would make the world a better place - they think it's a game with no consequence and spread their poison

No.

Because that's exactly what these extremist groups (far left, far right, anarchists, etc...) are looking for.
Adopting a violent and repressive stance would only serve their goals. That's what they thrive on, that's the soil they need to grow.

These groups are usually a small minority of agitators, hiding among regular and well meaning people. But when these agitators start throwing stuff and breaking things, the police does not have the ability to exact measured and targeted "retaliation". Thus adding innocents to the list of casualties. Who are then used as props by agitators to further their goals.

 

[Fluff]

I wish you guys would take your meds, as prescribed.

 

[BCNTM]

No.

Because that's exactly what these extremist groups (far left, far right, anarchists, etc...) are looking for.
Adopting a violent and repressive stance would only serve their goals. That's what they thrive on, that's the soil they need to grow.

These groups are usually a small minority of agitators, hiding among regular and well meaning people. But when these agitators start throwing stuff and breaking things, the police does not have the ability to exact measured and targeted "retaliation". Thus adding innocents to the list of casualties. Who are then used as props by agitators to further their goals.

Police know who they are before they ever turn up on the scene - should be pulled and dealt with before they ever get a chance to cause law-abiding peaceful protester to get in the way

Hobble a few of them

 

[Jake84]

I wish you guys would take your meds, as prescribed.

Well we appreciate having a Ph.D psychiatrist on this forum taking the time to stop by and tell us to up the dosage. Thank you for your years studying and sharing your knowledge on this forum.

 

[Fluff]

My 2 cents:

We are already in a world war, between mostly radical islam, and more or less everyone else, of which G20 inc Russia is a part of.

I hate the deployments of ground troops to shithole countries, but I see it as a way to reduce the death toll on our streets, better the fully trained and equipped squady meets the loon than an unarmed civilian.

Do I think this will reach civil war of any form, in Europe, no not really, not in the next 50 years.

We need to keep going with deradicalisation, strong economy, very limited immigration, foreign aid that really helps people, sensible involvement in other people’s civil wars(why cant we take a side?) etc.

The police and other services will keep a lid on the rest of it.

And ultimately that’s what our forces are for, if things do escalate a few light tanks on the streets tend to take the shine off of protesting.

If it really did explode ethnically, you would see white people deputised by the thousand, and then some really crazy things.

Again, don’t see it happening, most immigrants integrate, and buy into how good it is over here. The tiny % of loons get gunned down/locked up, hopefully before breeding....