Politics How likely is a civil war in Europe by the end of the 21st century?

[Fluff]

If you guys start killing each other over there again leave us out of it.

You can bring your own guns!!!! Now I gotcha!

 

[Fluff]

The reason why is because,the "clash of cultures" is often exaggerated because of the visual differences. I would dare say that the majority of Muslims and Im saying a far bigger majority is integrating and doing something about being accepted in the country. As an example, this is base on what happened over here... a few thousand, 3000 laid seige in one of our city in 2017. and that made the news. Whats often left out is, the muslims in the Armed Forces and the Muslim population who fought the ISIS group as well as the Muslims separatists who are hunting the ISIS now and actually working with the Armed Forces.


In short, the chances of the brownies being Oreos in the futurehas a bigger chance than the headline grabbing "civil wars" scenarios. Hell if I was the Finnish PM i would even put quotas on 5000 Lebanese, Iranian and Syrian... Women.

I agree, most non-white, and I'll use the phrase, 'non-native' will be working hard to get established, get a job, get kids into a good school, etc. there are the holdouts, malcontents, fail at school, must be the white-mans fault, so join radical islam, that'll help.

The scale of resource a state has, certainly in Europe, really precludes an internal revolt, civil war etc, we arent talking about some tiny Balkan enclave here. I think it more likely to see the opposite, some middle eastern state, collapses overnight, and we will see lines of white people waiting for their turn with the sword. I'm not saying it will happen, but more likely than a western European issue.

 

[Junglejim]

Over here, the Muslim majority are now trying to control the small numbers of radicals they have. So much sow that the muslims separatists are now actively taking on the ISIS and small radical groups in full on battles... so what happened? The entrance of radical islam from the middle east, basically the muslim majority doesnt want that culture to expand into their group.

I have a feeling its the same over there and before a civil war would happen,a bigger chance of "internal" cleansing by the muslim community there would probably happen. meanwhile, you media ill tell you differently cause thats what sells.

 

[bfc1001]

First off, let me say that even my title for this thread is a controversial one and maybe laughable even.

However, just a few days ago in France, a member of the govt of Macron suggested that Europe and the EU particularly should get 50M immigrants by 2050 because of our low birthrates, and these migrants would help pay the pensions of the indigenous in Europe by then.

How does a continent welcome 50 millions say, Sudanese, algerians, Malians, Morrocans, Pakistanis or Afghan in only 30 years?

If they are legally migrating and then working, it shouldn't be a problem, but will that be true of every of them? Probably not.

Also, it's clear that among the 50M he or others humanitarians want for Europe, 90% will be Muslims, whether Sunni or Shiite.

In the meantime, "White population" are on the decline because of their fertility rates.

Add to the mix how much diverse "White Euros" are already... the difference between how eastern Euro countries see the EU and western countries like France, The Netherlands and Germany, Belgium which are all already pretty diverse ethnically speaking.

Look, I'm not going to go ramble like that Psycho Anders Brevik in his Manifesto, but do you all believe we can "integrate" so many people from so many different backgrounds without going, if not civil war, at least some serious unrest...?

Thanks for reading. Discuss.

Good post Jake . Yep , birth rates aren't great (1.6 EU average ) to replace every 2 workers once retired ......... But this has been going on since the 60s . Germany's an interesting one to watch . Really low birth rates coupled with a slightly delayed boomer generation for obvious reasons . Europeans left to their own devices we would be seeing a decline in population , similar to Japan . When you have an economy built on consumption it helps if you have consumers .

 

[Moose_Hates_You]

Is this some frustrated armchair warrior wankfest thread?

 

[PEMM]

Is this some frustrated armchair warrior wankfest thread?

It's not necessarily frustrated.

 

[muck]

@bfc1001
And yet the birthrate amongst immigrants drops quite rapidly once they've become economically integrated. The birth rate of Turkish-Germans (arguably the least badly-integrated of all badly-integrated immigrant communities in these parts) is less than half of what it used to be when the first guest workers came to this country.

I trust you're aware I'm not particularly fond of mass immigration, to say the least. Yet still observations such as Mohammed being the most popular boy's name in the United Kingdom in 2019 do not worry me nearly as much as the left's reaction to this observation. Their nonreflective approval to signal open-mindedness and their destructive belief that diversity is a good thing in and of itself are far more scary to me. They're at the root of all our woes, not boys named Mohammed.

If our governments demanded just half the effort from immigrants which their own governments demand from those moving to their countries, the world would be a better place. Heck, if just one prime minister had the guts to remind immigrants coming from what Trump calls "shithole countries" how badly we'd be treated if we wished to migrate there, it would probably make a difference.

 

[Mordoror]

@bfc1001
And yet the birthrate amongst immigrants drops quite rapidly once they've become economically integrated. The birth rate of Turkish-Germans (arguably the least badly-integrated of all badly-integrated immigrant communities in these parts) is less than half of what it used to be when the first guest workers came to this country.

I trust you're aware I'm not particularly fond of mass immigration, to say the least. Yet still observations such as Mohammed being the most popular boy's name in the United Kingdom in 2019 do not worry me nearly as much as the left's reaction to this observation. Their nonreflective approval to signal open-mindedness and their destructive belief that diversity is a good thing in and of itself are far more scary to me. They're at the root of all our woes, not boys named Mohammed.

If our governments demanded just half the effort from immigrants which their own governments demand from those moving to their countries, the world would be a better place. Heck, if just one prime minister had the guts to remind immigrants coming from what Trump calls "shithole countries" how badly we'd be treated if we wished to migrate there, it would probably make a difference.

You are correct about birthrate. However the paradigm is that 2nd and 3d generations are not migrants anymore

The equation is simple : the economy/industry needs low wages low education workforce. (2d and 3d generations (most of them) are not considered low education anymore.)

That's why you had since the 70s calls from various enterprises unions for open borders
It has been done recently in your country again (in particular during the 2015 immigration crisis)
Funnily back in the 70s the far left was against this process. Our own Communist Party leader (G. Marchais) had foreseen and understood the system.
Importation of low wages workforce was also a way to keep the wages low for the "natives" by the competition system
Since then the far left has done a full U turn on the issue.
So you have a convergence between Industry tycoons and far left ideologsts for more migration. Ones will say it's a way to keep the pension scheme of our respective countries and the others will speak about "think about the children"

In both cases, they do not take in consideration that :
- low wages low education workforce is less needed nowadays because of increase in the technicity of most jobs
- mass migration applies a burden on the social security (healthcare, pensions, unemployement) of our respective countries
- not even talking about the public safety issues

Alas, on the "right" it is also a way to blow out the public system (see Chomsky explanation : how to destroy a public system ; put it in a situation where it cannot work anymore .... which is exactly what is happening with the kind of immigration we have right now). Once destroyed, it is easier to privatize the thing

On the left, it is now a significant voter pool

Both are winning from that

The ones losing are us ....

 

[PEMM]

Great post Mordoror

- low wages low education workforce is less needed nowadays because of increase in the technicity of most jobs

And to add: we already have a problem of how to employ those from our population with low education. Immigrants with low education, who can't speak the language, are even lower on the ladder.

 

[Mordoror]

Great post Mordoror



And to add: we already have a problem of how to employ those from our population with low education. Immigrants with low education, who can't speak the language, are even lower on the ladder.

Ain't that the truth.
But you know the words "but, but, but, locals/natives don't want to do the lowest/dirty/socialy shunned jobs"

 

[Fluff]

Is this some frustrated armchair warrior wankfest thread?

I take offence at the armchair jibe!

 

[HisRoyalHighness]

Well....if there is going to be a civil war in a western country, it’s probably going to be in the United States; especially with the shenanigans going on in Virginia.

 

[Mordoror]

Well....if there is going to be a civil war in a western country, it’s probably going to be in the United States; especially with the shenanigans going on in Virginia.

What's going on ?

 

[HisRoyalHighness]

What's going on ?

As of November, Virgina Democrats threatened to ban and jail millions of Virginia gun owners if they didn’t turn in 95% of all semiautomatic long rifles, Virginians fought back and turned 80% of the state into gun sanctuaries with politicians and Law Enforcement backing, VA Governor told them to enforce their future bans or else, a member of the VA Democrats stated they should start deploying the National Guard to start confiscating guns, some law enforcement are planning on deputizing thousands of gun owners to protect their rights, other counties are going to start forming militia units.

It’s really bad.

 

[Chazman]

As of November, Virgina Democrats threatened to ban and jail millions of Virginia gun owners if they didn’t turn in 95% of all semiautomatic long rifles, Virginians fought back and turned 80% of the state into gun sanctuaries with politicians and Law Enforcement backing, VA Governor told them to enforce their future bans or else, a member of the VA Democrats stated they should start deploying the National Guard to start confiscating guns, some law enforcement are planning on deputizing thousands of gun owners to protect their rights, other counties are going to start forming militia units.

It’s really bad.

Virginia is proof that you can affect elections with mass immigration. But as usual, the left once again overplayed it's hand.

 

[Mordoror]

As of November, Virgina Democrats threatened to ban and jail millions of Virginia gun owners if they didn’t turn in 95% of all semiautomatic long rifles, Virginians fought back and turned 80% of the state into gun sanctuaries with politicians and Law Enforcement backing, VA Governor told them to enforce their future bans or else, a member of the VA Democrats stated they should start deploying the National Guard to start confiscating guns, some law enforcement are planning on deputizing thousands of gun owners to protect their rights, other counties are going to start forming militia units.

It’s really bad.

That sounds bad as it is but i dont see it turning into a civil war.
For that, you need a lot of things that dont seem to be present at a critical mass. (Hate either ethnic/religious or political, medias putting oil on fire, political personalities calling to arms,.an external meddling..)
These things exist but are still at low level. Or so it seems to me

 

[Jake84]

Is this some frustrated armchair warrior wankfest thread?

Is that directed at me, personally, MHY?

 

[Fluff]

I like figures, UK has a low unemployment rate, of around 4%, but this is still 1.5 million people, with no work.

At £100 a week, that's £8BN a year.

so are we still going to pay these people to play xbox all day, and bring in people from europe and africa to do the jobs we dont want to do?

 

[HisRoyalHighness]

That sounds bad as it is but i dont see it turning into a civil war.
For that, you need a lot of things that dont seem to be present at a critical mass. (Hate either ethnic/religious or political, medias putting oil on fire, political personalities calling to arms,.an external meddling..)
These things exist but are still at low level. Or so it seems to me

Hopefully not, but I can see the powderkeg being filled.

 

[bfc1001]

And yet the birthrate amongst immigrants drops quite rapidly once they've become economically integrated.

And your saying that's civilized ?