Warfare HAMAS attack on Israel, Oct 2023 & Iran’s Proxies.

[primer]

They semed to have great knowledge as usual of Iranian designs to drop bombs to bisect the target under ground creating more extensive damage. Surely Isreal also smashed the access points to begin with.
Burying alive workers and scientists.

 

[Fluff]

Well, that would be the easy way out.

And the ire of Iran would be renewed against Israel and the evil US and such. I suppose they would run for a time, long enough for either the fire to die off or for them doing something absolutely stupid. Like a headless chicken.

However, if Khamenei passed out absolutely naturally like the Pope. His health is bad, deteriorates and dies. Ok. Who succeeds him? Not so much asking for a name, but what kind of individual will fill his shoes? Same kind? Worse? Better (doubtful but... heh)?
Someone who is more set on religion? More on politics? More on the military?

Whoever follows won't be aligned with the West or Israel. It could be someone who manages to better things between Iran the neighboring Arab countries. And then you have the whole region turning into the sand-pit version of Africa, except instead of the Europeans being kicked out, the US and Israel will be the ones shown the door.

So we are sending JD over, for the peace talks then......

 

[NebrHogger]

As for changing regimes, it's time to take a deep breath and think that through. A civil war incited by whatever 3rd party could easily precipitate another stampede of refugees to western Europe. Just what you folks do not need!

 

[Fluff]

As for changing regimes, it's time to take a deep breath and think that through. A civil war incited by whatever 3rd party could easily precipitate another stampede of refugees to western Europe. Just what you folks do not need!

I think the undecided Syrian civil war, where we encouraged them to revolt, then pulled support, but allowed Russia to send in about 15 aircraft, which decided at least for a long time, the regime winning, until it wasn't.

Hopefully we have learnt from this, who knows what Israel has planned, and what fate will deliver, which could be vastly different from what anyone wishes. But any change, I would welcome, couldn't be worse.....

 

[primer]

Endless wars is what Iran's regime is selling. This could be a pivotal time. Where else did you have 80% had enough of regime and not the split like in Iraq.

 

[Chazman]

I think the undecided Syrian civil war, where we encouraged them to revolt, then pulled support, but allowed Russia to send in about 15 aircraft, which decided at least for a long time, the regime winning, until it wasn't.

Hopefully we have learnt from this, who knows what Israel has planned, and what fate will deliver, which could be vastly different from what anyone wishes. But any change, I would welcome, couldn't be worse.....

Who would benefit from a fractured Iran in civil war? Turkey? Israel?

 

[primer]

Isreal has already stated it prefers regime collapse or waving around a paper like Chamberlain proclaiming peace for a short time.
The ceasefire shredded in less than one hour?

 

[Fluff]

Who would benefit from a fractured Iran in civil war? Turkey? Israel?

ISIS or other extremes as a base. Not China, unless they could engineer to have their favourites hold the oil fields, but unlikely. Not USA, Russia a bit, if it kept Trump busy and his eye off Ukraine. Not Europe, still needs gas etc. Turkey likes to play the games, but to some extent it played what we gave them, in Syria. I dont think Israel benefits, as the risks of nukes or at least nuke material falling into loony tunes hands, is real. Maybe it wont be fractured, maybe Iran will just do it, overnight.

 

[primer]

Not excluding Trump has tweeted atleast once regime change.
For this it's best to leave the Aytollah alive. He's the architect of Iranian disscontent.

 

[Chazman]

ISIS or other extremes as a base. Not China, unless they could engineer to have their favourites hold the oil fields, but unlikely. Not USA, Russia a bit, if it kept Trump busy and his eye off Ukraine. Not Europe, still needs gas etc. Turkey likes to play the games, but to some extent it played what we gave them, in Syria. I dont think Israel benefits, as the risks of nukes or at least nuke material falling into loony tunes hands, is real. Maybe it wont be fractured, maybe Iran will just do it, overnight.

That's kind of how these things happen. Slowly, slowly....then all at once.

 

[Hiryu2.0]

Donald is'nt very happy with Iran nor Israel

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About regime change: there are 92 million people in Iran. 92 million people who have a strong national feeling, 92 million people who despite the mullah regime fought and beat Irak.

oh, santa westling simplicitas...

 

[Hiryu2.0]

if legit, clearly written in El Trumpo font.

Yeo, Donald should be treated like a mushroom farm:
-keep it in the dark and feed it manure, and everybody happy..

 

[Mike1976]

Iran however still is "united" to some extent and the Mullahs still retain a significant amount of power and influence on the population.
Another main difference is the kind of power being involved. Assad's power wasn't political, it was dictatorial, autocratic and generational; in itself Assad's power was based on nothing.
Iran however is based on religion, and religious power is significantly harder to break than anything else. Even under the most repressive, backward, "neandertalesque", religious regime you will have compliant and obedient followers. As if religious oppression was preferable to any other.

What would be the trigger then... not sure removing the mullahs would be the way to go. Or at least, I am not sure that would lead to productive results.

Creating a civil war by funneling weapons and having underground resistance groups might not be the way to go either. The goal is to keep the country united, not have people mounted against one another and forced to kill one another to, potentially, reach that outcome.

Perhaps the other regional Arab countries should step up and get involved more regarding Iran. After all, Iran is an actual threat to these countries as well.

I was watching an interview with a second generation immigrant whose parents fled Iran in the 90s. They still have family living in the country. Those in Iran said that though they were happy about the improved prospect of regime change when the bombing started they now just hoped that everything would return to normal.

If that's the case across Iran than they should be happy in the prison they've built for themselves.

If other Arab countries get involved the situation would only get much, much worse due to the Sunni - Shia blood rivalry. That'd make some African wars look clean by comparison.

 

[Mike1976]

Earlier this evening, the Air Force intercepted two unmanned aerial vehicles that were making their way towards the country's territory, apparently from Iran. The interceptions were carried out outside the country's territory. Alerts were activated in open areas according to policy.

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[Mike1976]

Now that the open warfare part of the war seems to be over it's time to do the accounting bit.

@Fluff
So how many of those "overpriced" and "unreliable" with "stealth doesn't work", "low fuel capacity" and "insufficient room for weapons" F-35s were shot down by these BRICS air defence systems which are "far superior to our own" while only "costing a fraction of overpriced western Cold War relics"?

Ah yes, the "experts". The only thing they're experts at is failure and making themselves look like @ss.

Nothing says "Buy me" quite like gaining air superiority over your enemy's capital on day two of the war, losing zero jets and only 3 drones (visually confirmed), and that purchasing advice goes both ways!

 

[Fluff]

Now that the open warfare part of the war seems to be over it's time to do the accounting bit.

@Fluff
So how many of those "overpriced" and "unreliable" with "stealth doesn't work", "low fuel capacity" and "insufficient room for weapons" F-35s were shot down by these BRICS air defence systems which are "far superior to our own" while only "costing a fraction of overpriced western Cold War relics"?

Ah yes, the "experts". The only thing they're experts at is failure and making themselves look like @ss.

Nothing says "Buy me" quite like gaining air superiority over your enemy's capital on day two of the war and loosing zero jets and only 3 drones (visually confirmed), and that purchasing advice goes both ways!

It was because the Iranians don’t drink 3 litres of vodka before logging on, system assumes operator is 30 seconds behind what’s really happening.

I’d think China is having yet another re-think about Taiwan. Maybe trump will gift them 12 f35.

 

[Mike1976]

Empty Screens
| The recollections of an Iranian radar
operator on the 12-Day Victory |

by Corporal Navid M.​

 

[primer]

IT'S CONFIRMED! SUPERPOWER IRAN HAS INDEED SHOT DOWN F35, HERE'S THE WRECK!

1 of 4

 

[Mike1976]

IT'S CONFIRMED! SUPERPOWER IRAN HAS INDEED SHOT DOWN F35, HERE'S THE WRECK!

1 of 4

You mean Iranians are Scale 1/4

This is going to pose a slight inconvenience for those among us creating dioramas.

 

[TheKiwi]

That's the sixth time that dumb picture has been posted in this thread alone.