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[Flagg]

Russia has nukes, Taiwan doesnt...

Anyway I cant wait to see the Fall of Taipei thread appearing on this forum to post more videos of US diplomatic staff being evacuated by helicopters. I had so much fun in Fall of Kabul thread over the last few weeks. ? ? ?

Russia can make nukes, but they can’t make semiconductors(TSMC).

And the world is far more reliant on Taiwan continuing to make semiconductors than Russia continuing to make nukes.

 

[Redav]

Let's see if it doesn't Turn into UKAUS

 

[Picanha]

In best case scenario the Taiwan Armed Forces will be crashed, while population of Taiwan will stay neutral towards the new rule. Most likely scenario though is Taiwan Forces surrendering without a fight, while population welcoming reunitification with mainland China. In any case US will just stand by and watch it...

And whats the plan after the successful invasion? You think China shipping and selling goods around the globe would still continue then?

 

[nicememe]

It is the other way around, AUKUS has come from huge geopolitical changes.

What geopolitical changes? I didn't see any official shifts in alliances or any changes in borders. AUKUS is the first major geopolitical change that can actually be drawn with a pen on the world map in the form of arrows and circles. All the other "changes" you speak of are more like prerequisites for incoming actual visually identifiable geopolitical changes.

 

[morris]

What geopolitical changes? I didn't see any official shifts in alliances or any changes in borders. AUKUS is the first major geopolitical change that can actually be drawn with a pen on the world map in the form of arrows and circles. All the other "changes" you speak of are more like prerequisites for incoming actual visually identifiable geopolitical changes.

Somebody see them early somebody late, sometime too late.

 

[nicememe]

And whats the plan after the successful invasion? You think China shipping and selling goods around the globe would still continue then?

Depends on who holds the money. For as long as the US was the richest guy in the world, he could breach anyone's sovereignty and get away with it scot-free. The primary reason was that the world saw it as more beneficial to side with the US foreign policy than not, due to gibs and mutual-dependence. Now it increasingly becomes more hurtful for many to side with the US on many subjects. The gibs are in decline, and mutual-dependence is as well.

Regarding Taiwan, I personally see it as China's version of the "Ukraine question".
First of, the world should stop putting all eggs into a single basket, and stuff like microchip production needs to be proliferated and spread across the entire world, for the world's own good. Nobody is benefitting from monopoly on crucial electronics production. Secondly, I find it historically natural for Taiwan and China to become reunified in some form or manner. The current state of affairs is a sand castle that is bound to collapse on itself.

 

[nicememe]

Somebody see them early somebody late, sometime too late.

You are talking about prerequisites for geopolitical change. To claim that geopolitical changes already happened, you'd have to point me to what borders were redrawn or what alliances have been officially terminated or launched.

 

[morris]

You are talking about prerequisites for geopolitical change. To claim that geopolitical changes already happened, you'd have to point me to what borders were redrawn or what alliances have been officially terminated or launched.

Have a look at the South China sea thread.

 

[nicememe]

Have a look at the South China sea thread.

You sure are talented at avoiding questions.

 

[Ivan le Fou]

French envoy to return to U.S. after fence-mending Biden-Macron call

The U.S. and French presidents moved to mend ties on Wednesday, with France agreeing to send its ambassador back to Washington and the White House acknowledging it erred in brokering a deal for Australia to buy U.S. instead of French submarines without consulting Paris.

www.reuters.com

 

[morris]

Seriously I suggest you not to wait and I start the "Fall of Taipei" thread right now? Why to lose time...

Are you a gambling man?
Let's have bet on the "Fall of Taipei".
If the fall doesn't happen by April next year you will pay US$50.00
If the fall happen I will pay that amount.
The payment will go to buy the team a beer.
Everybody welcome to join the bet if that is ok with @Bombardier.

 

[Flagg]

Point is Russia is able to defend itself against China. While Taiwan is not.

And may I ask you why production of semiconductors in Taiwan is supposed to stop after reunification with China?

Producing 7nm, 5nm, and soon 4nm and 3nm silicon is the most difficult manufacturing in the world.

And Taiwan has 90% of the world’s advanced manufacturing capability, by design, to ensure its continuity.

If the Chinese make a play for Taiwan, 100% of its advanced semicon capability would be destroyed.

It‘s the easiest CARVER matrix in the world to deter adversaries(China) who need it.

The world would suffer far more from losing Taiwan silicon that Saudi Arabian oil. That’s a fact.

The current semicon related supply chain problems we have now would increase 10,000x and throw the world into a global depression.

Russia launching 2 or 3 nukes would cause the world less damage than the loss of 2 or 3 specific TSMC chip fabs in Taiwan.

 

[Flagg]

New developments are coming in Sahel then. French probably got scared for their corporate interests in West Africa after Wagner group appeared in the region...

Wagner Group recently got slaughtered in Mozambique.

So recent Incidents are more clown shoes than ninja hype.

 

[Flagg]

Taiwan is definately coming home and you can do nothing about it...

China has a long way to go.

And that includes reducing their existential Sea Lines of Communication(SLOC) vulnerability.

Belt and Road infrastructure cutting across Asia will certainly reduce it over time.

But until then and well after, a reasonable number of high end submarines can completely interdict China’s SLOCs.

And China knows it.

It’s specifically why China is having kittens over Aussie nuke attack boats.

 

[Ivan le Fou]

Perception that France is ‘too soft’ on China fed Australia submarine dispute

As France rages over last week's Australia-UK-US (AUKUS) defence deal that saw Canberra ditch multibillion-dollar submarine contracts, analysts suggest Paris should not have been so shocked – considering…

www.france24.com

The EU, and France, has adopted a pretty weak and submissive stance towards China. Especially during the COVID crisis.
Or even the Uighurs or the HK crisis.

 

[Picanha]

Im asking you the same question again - why the semiconductor production in Taiwan supposed to stop after reunification? Is there any evidence of Hong Kong economy collapsing after being reintegrated into Chinese economy? Any evidence of massive insurgency in Hong Kong against Chinas rule? I do recognize its not the best parallel but still...

Because its either evacuated or destroyed? Or do you think they will welcome CCP apparatschiks with flowers at the factory gate? After they assaulted and invaded their country?

 

[Fluff]

Fall of Taipei is definately coming. China wont be able to resist the temptation...

China may indeed have no choice, but the risks to the CCP many, there are....

 

[Fluff]

Read carefully. I gave you the example of Hong Kong. No evidence of Hong Kong economy being evacuated or destroyed after evil communist takeover.

well thats ok then, we can all invade anyone, as long as production isnt reduced.......

 

[Flagg]

Im asking you the same question again - why the semiconductor production in Taiwan supposed to stop after reunification? Is there any evidence of Hong Kong economy collapsing after being reintegrated into Chinese economy? Any evidence of massive insurgency in Hong Kong against Chinas rule? I do recognize its not the best parallel but still...

You need to understand how the semiconductor industry works. TSMC in Taiwan manufactures the most sophisticated silicon in the world. The US designs the most sophisticated silicon in the world. The US banned China from using US IP, so have been excluded from using chips with US IP, and China is a decade behind in silicon design.

I will repeat my initial point - unlike Taiwan Russians dont have to rely on the rest of the World in order to defend themselves. You know Ive been listening the stories about Chinese taking away Siberia for at least 20 years now. Im not joking. Just like the stories about Russian economy collapsing because of Russias bad behaviour. 20 years has passed and neither is the case. But its alright you just keep dreaming, guys... ???

Italy is an economic powerhouse compared to Russia, exceeding Russia’s economic output by approx 20%. Economically Russia is struggling to be a middle power, at best.

That’s not opinion, that’s the numbers.

CAR would be much better example when Russians help friendly government that was on the brink of callapse to win the civil war. Thats just the begining.

And nothing is over in Mozambique yet. Dont be surprised to see Yasen submarines blowing ISIS insurgents into pieces by Kalibr missiles soon.

Of course we would all be surprised because it’s so incredibly unlikely.

Russia’s actions are so focused on optics over actual performance it’s surreal. Growing up in the Cold War I never would have expected a post Soviet Union Russia racing to best Tom Cruise for first action movie filmed in space for national prestige. it’s all quite sad.

If you are so sure about going to War against China over Taiwan, why dont you resume the Mutual Defense Agreement with Taiwan that expired 40 years ago? Come on, sign it! Whats the problem? ? ? ?

The Taiwan is coming home 100%. Im not saying it will happen in the next 6 months, but it will happen. China has been waiting long enough...

And TSMC Is the biggest reason why China hasn’t applied even more pressure and potentially kinetic action directed at Taiwan.

Because China, the US, and the world are utterly dependent on Taiwanese silicon, can’t live without it, and can’t be seized without being very easily disrupted for years. Period.

 

[Flagg]

Read carefully. I gave you the example of Hong Kong. No evidence of Hong Kong economy being evacuated or destroyed after evil communist takeover.

Semiconductor shortage that has hobbled manufacturing worldwide is getting worse

The current COVID19 related disruption to silicon supply chains a very very serious problem for manufacturers all around the world.

But it is 0.01% of the problem we would have if Taiwanese TSMC silicon is disrupted.

This is thr last post on the matter.

Get back on topic or create another thread.