Other Post The Lebanization of Iraq

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Very Interesting Article :?
April 7, 2003, 7:15 a.m.
The Lebanization of Iraq
Will the Iraqi battlefield become an all-out terror war?

By Evan Kohlmann



s U.S. forces battle the remainder of the Republican Guard and continue to encircle and move into Baghdad, a new threat to their safety is swiftly developing. According to a steady stream of news reports coming from the Arab and Western media, hundreds of volunteers from across the region are arriving daily along Iraq’s borders eager to join in a jihad against America, with or without Saddam Hussein. Many of these men are simple street thugs of various shapes and sizes who have been recruited by remaining Iraqi embassies and interest sections abroad, posing little threat to American soldiers. However, a smaller minority exists within these “Arab-Iraqis” of men with advanced terrorist training, from the vicious ranks of Hamas, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), Hezbollah, and al Qaeda. This international coalition of militant mujahedeen (“holy warriors”) is now plotting deadly guerilla ambushes against U.S. troops active in Iraq, including through the use of “martyrdom” — read suicide — bombers.




Over the past 14 days, the reaction in the Arab street has grown louder and angrier as the war in Iraq has intensified. Our Arab leadership allies have been reluctant to stand with us in this battle; Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak warned ominously last week in a televised speech that the situation in Iraq would likely create a “hundred bin Ladens.” While the lack of political support Mubarak and others in the Arab world have offered towards ridding the world of Saddam is unfortunate, perhaps he may have a valid point here. In camps along the Iraqi border, potentially thousands of young militants are gathering at this moment, many eager to give their lives for American blood.


Indeed, a cadre of these men are acting on orders issued by senior terrorist commanders across the Middle East, who have publicly called upon their forces to prepare for combat in Iraq. Former University of South Florida professor and secretary general of PIJ, Ramadan Abdullah Shallah, announced to his men in an interview last week:


A door to jihad and martyrdom is being opened to the Islamic nation… we tell them — all mujahideen, jihad advocates, our entire nation and people everywhere — that whoever manages to reach Iraq, Baghdad and Al-Najaf to blow himself up against the new Tatar forces amid this US invasion will be practicing the highest manifestations of jihad and martyrdom.

PIJ is best known for its cruel use of “martyrdom operations,” such as one horrific attack in Israel last October when an Islamic Jihad suicide bomber murdered 14 people after ramming an explosives-laden SUV into a bus packed with civilian passengers during rush hour. PIJ already claims to have special martyrdom units pre-positioned in Baghdad who are eagerly awaiting the arrival of Coalition soldiers and their expected future in Paradise.

Shallah’s words have been largely echoed by the secretary general of Hezbollah, an equally hostile Lebanese Shiite group already responsible for the deaths of over 250 American citizens. Shaykh Abbas al-Musawi, a top leader of that organization, has in the past referred to the devastating 1983 suicide attack on the U.S. Marine barracks in Beirut as “the [greatest] achievement of the Hezbollah.”

In northern Iraq, the remnants of Ansar Al-Islam, a Kurdish group allied with al Qaeda, are claiming to be mobilizing their own “martyrdom” squads, including a number of foreign “mujahedeen” with prior military training in Afghanistan and Chechnya. The fighters of Ansar Al-Islam have a deadly expertise in the realm of suicide bombing, and their resolve to sacrifice their own lives in order to strike at America should not be taken lightly.

Without surprise, a number of Iraq’s neighbors have stepped forward to receive these jihadi volunteers, including Syria and Iran. Until just a few days ago, buses carrying these recruits reportedly ran back and forth regularly from Damascus to Baghdad. Brigadier General Vincent Brooks at Central Command in Qatar told a news briefing, “We do have reports that there is certainly an interest in people from Syria contributing in a way that is not in the interest of the coalition inside of Iraq.”

Likewise, when U.S. B-52 bombers and Kurdish peshmerga guerillas drove Ansar Al-Islam from their training camps south of Halabja, they fled directly across the mountains into Iran. Iranian authorities, plainly aware of Ansar’s presence, have done nothing publicly to curtail their activities or movement. Moreover, Iranian President Mohammed Khatami took to the airwaves on Thursday with a frank and unapologetic warning to the Bush administration that “[w]ith this war you are giving a green light to extremist movements and violence-seekers to answer back your violence with violence.”

Thus, the problem of growing numbers of irregular soldiers in Iraq is a serious one indeed. While the suicide squads of PIJ, Hezbollah, and al Qaeda may not present a serious conventional military threat to our troops on the ground, their unpredictable acts of bloodshed and mayhem could certainly upset the delicate peace that we seek to bring to Iraq. In the past, in war zones such as Afghanistan, Bosnia, and Chechnya, the world has allowed the problem of militant irregulars to balloon out of control; many of these shell-shocked fanatics have gone on to take key positions within various international anti-American terrorist groups, including al Qaeda. This time, U.S. military planners would be wise to take care of the problem quickly and decisively.

— Evan Kohlmann is a senior terrorism analyst at the Investigative Project, a Washington D.C.-based counterterrorism think tank established in 1995. He is currently writing a book,The Martyrs of Bosnia: Al-Qaida’s War of Terror in Europe.
 
This report is quite old - though it does perhaps accurately reflect the current or recent past situation on the ground. Be that as it may, now is the time for Iyad Allawi, the Iraqi P.M. to get a grip and deliver what he can against the terrorist/martyrdom gang. The problem may still or is still there and I think (having lived in this part of the world (Gulf States & Iran) a lot of the rhetoric issued by the leaders is for home consumption BUT the Arab countries need to play their part too. More money needs to be given to Iraq to build up its security apparatus and to train it; friendly Arab nations should be providing troops (in agreement with the Iraqi government) and a more widespread and high profile of local police. The security agencies (however you read the Butler report, SIS' information was used out of context and without the normal checks and profiles) will hopefully have recruited more agents en situ to deal with advance notice of terrorist movement, activity financial backing.
 
Good stuff guys. Zofo, I am really envious of the way you guys can travel to al these places I consider quite exotic. Seems like the farthest I get is Tennessee.

From what I gather the extreme Muslims have a five part agenda:
1. Drive the U.S. and allies out of the Mid-east.
2. Gain control of all Mid-east oil.
3. Get some nukes (read Pakistan), enough to survive Israel's second strike capbility, or -
4. Get the UN to neutralize Israels nuclear capability.
5. Destroy Israel.
And then for part two, bin Laden said something abut reversing the Battle of Tours.

For its part, the U.S. needs to keep one big foot in Afghanistan (next to Pakistan) and another in the gulf region. Actually, we need something so we will take this war serious. If not, Lady Liberty might as well turn around and moon the world.

One thing that people generally don't know is that at Falujah when things stalemated, Marine snipers killed some 4,000 el Sadr militia. There is always a way.

Rotor
 
RW, Tennessee sounds exotic to me!
The BBC carried several reports on its internet site about the sniping situation. Albeit with the ususal dour disapproving BBC type reporting with a shot of innuendo and a subtle "were they all militia" sort of thing.
Cynics and anti-Americans (I do not consider myself either (well, maybe a bit of cynic)) but I play devil's advocate here, consider the following 5 point plan to be the US agenda:

1. Drive all opposition from the mid-east.
2. Gain control of all Mid-east oil.
3. Deprive other nations of nukes (my comment - of course they should).
4. Get the UN to (passively perhaps) support Israel's nuc. policy.
5. Support Israel to "N'th" degree.
6. I don't know what this "reversing the Battle of Tours" means!

This sort of garbage can be found on any left wing, militant, CND, or anti-american site anywhere in the world. With this lot against the US and its allies, who needs terrorists?

Just so I don't get into trouble, put my foot in it or have hoardes of Vets screaming at me, I don't believe or subscribe to the above but have included it to stimulate (good natured) debate on Western foreign policy our amateur (or professional) opinions on what should happen next, how to curb the terror campaigns and, if anyone can do it and solve the Israel/Palestine question, then we put them up for the Nobel Peace Prize!
 
Interesting premise. Now, of course, we really don't want to control the Mid-east oil, we just want an open market where we can buy at a fair price. In fact, the fastest growing oil consumer in the world is China. They have been incurring the wrath of the Phillipines, Indonesia and Vietnam because they are laying claim to some islands clear down by Borneo using some obscure UN ruling from some time ago. We actually have enormous oil reserves but in our present economy it is cheaper to purchase overseas. We also have Mexico and Venezuela to buy from on this side of the pond.

What scares us about other people owning nukes is the proliferation. The USSR had how many warheads before the meltdown? Where have all the warheads gone? What condition are they in? By now most are probably as big a danger to their owner as they are to anyone else. At least when the USSR was all together we could be fairly certain that the finger over the button was as rational as a good communist could be.

The support of Israel is tacit, the nation has a right to exist without being thrown into the Med. The UN created the nation, if they had any guts at all they would guarantee their survival.

The Battle of Tours was where some Frankish type named Charles the Hammer (sounds like a wrestler) defeated the Muslims in their drive north out of Spain. From that time on, Muslims were kept south of the Pyrenees.

I don't think the mid-east situation will ever be settled, there is no solution that will be acceptable to both sides. The Arab leadership is largely responsible for keeping their people in poverty. The entire region, even with the oil, has less GNP then Spain. Yes, everybody hates America yet every year we turn people away who want to immigrate here and then we have to throw some back who have snuck in and would make good citizens. I wish some other countries had this trouble.

I had a discussion with one person who told me that the only way Americans could be so rich was because we stole it from everybody! Who did we steal it from, the Canucks? The Mexicans? (well there was that little problem with California)

Tell you what, you show me Spain and I will show you Tennessee.

Have a good un.

Rotor
 
Regarding show you Spain, with the best wishes in the world, come and see where we are! The Socialists returned the troops but life is goood. I would love to come to the USA!
A more detailed reply to follow but I'm just logging onto PF for my 1st time and need to abide by the instructions - I agree with what you say, for what it's worth!
 
Have now logged onto PF and been a bit intimidated by some of the posts but there we go..
The Soviet Union and Russia is my "territory" if you like. The problem there with the warheads is that they are either decaying rapidly or have been preserved for the Russian arsenal. The former states are a real problem and could do damage. Luckily the security services seem to be keeping this problem under control.

I believe that the Brits were responsible for Israel vis a vis the Balfour Declaration - as usual the divide and rule programme worked here. Badly for everyone I'm afraid.

Regarding turning people away - did you see that the Brits, bless their cotton socks, have said that the Afghan hijackers (2000) can stay in Britain. Brits allow Afghan Hijackers (200) to stay in Britain (I apologise for the link but it seems to give the Brit idea).
ps a good ref for Israel etc can be found here:Israel

Spain is ready and waiting for you, come and see us!!
 
Zofo, I just came from a site ORBAT.Com that predicts an Israeli attack on Iran sometime next year. It seems that Russia is selling nuclear fuel to Iran that could become a problem for Israel, given Iran's love for that country. Knowing Russia as you do, what think ye?

RW

P.S. Do you ever come across any positions for someone to teach English?
Might be a stretch for me, some say I have trouble speaking it, even though it's the only language I know, other than profanity. But I am a certified teacher, not in English, but in Business and in History. I know a little Spanish but you don't want me ordering lunch.
 
I would imagine that Russia is selling anything that it can to whoever it can through a million and one different offshore and front companies. They have a massive deficit (having supported the Soviet union republics, the WP countries and Cuba with v. cut price oil and gas amongst other things) and while there is an emerging middle class, the wealth ratio is staggering. My Mother in law, before she died, earned the princely sum of between 50 and 100 USD a month and she was an English teacher!
as to a war, the Israelis have a traditional disdain for world opinion but if George W. or John Kerry wish to stay in office then they'll have some serious diplomatic legwork to do. The Israelis seem only to listen to (when it suits them) the USA anyway.

Teaching? Well, there are English schools here for rich or not so rich expats who don't want their children learing Catalan (the regional language) or Mallorquin (local dialect of Catalan). They do prefer a degree or equivalent in teaching. If you're interested, I can pm you anything that I find?
 
Yes, the Brits were responsible but it was still the UN that passed the resolution in 1948.

And I also think you are probably right about Russia.

On the teaching issue, don't go out of your way, I am under contract for this year anyway. I often see ads for Native English speakers to teach. Not that there aren't an entire country of them over there now. The biggest market right now seems to be in China and South Korea. Sometimes I get a gleam in my eye at the romantic notion of working over there, I consider you quite lucky. The truth is I don't think I could be that far from my grandkids for that long.

Thanks, I apreciate you.

Rotor
 

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