Politics Ethiopia dam

[morris]

River Nile dam: Reservoir filling up, Ethiopia confirms

Officials confirm satellite images showing water levels rising, amid failed talks with Egypt and Sudan.

www.bbc.com

Ethiopia started filling Grand Renaissance, a giant hydroelectric dam it is building on the Blue Nile, its water minister said on Wednesday after talks with Sudan and Egypt over the structure became deadlocked.
Ethiopia says the colossal dam offers a critical opportunity to pull millions of its nearly 110 million citizens out of poverty. The project is the centrepiece of Ethiopia's bid to become Africa's biggest power exporter.

Cairo told the United Nations last month it faces an "existential threat" from the hydroelectric dam.
Relying on the Nile for more than 90 percent of its water supply and already facing high water stress, Egypt fears a devastating effect on its population of 100 million.
In June, Minister of Foreign Affairs Sameh Shoukry warned conflict could erupt if the UN fails to intervene, as the dam endangers the lives of 150 million Egyptians and Sudanese.

Sudan's government, meanwhile, said water levels on the Blue Nile had declined by 90 million cubic metres per day after Ethiopia started filling the dam on its side of the border.

 

[TheKiwi]

I can see why the Ethiopians would not feel bound by colonial era treaties that didn't even consult them.

 

[Flagg]

Egypt dies without the Nile.

That’s 100 million people.

15 million involved in Water intensive agriculture.

1.5 million bales of water intensive cotton exports.

+ an economy kicked in the nuts by the complete loss of tourism “export earnings” due to CV19.

Africa’s biggest and best equipped military.

Egypt going expeditionary would be interesting as they have a history of military embarrassment every time they stray from home.

The water problem could be rectified with the world’s biggest dreading operation of the Sudanese Sudd swamp/wetlands to eliminate staggering levels of water evaporation there.

Or biblical war and suffering.

Maybe this is why Uganda bought Su27/30s.

 

[Royal]

Egypt going expeditionary would be interesting as they have a history of military embarrassment every time they stray from home.

And a number of units entirely dedicated to seccuring upstream assets that threaten the country's water supplies - which have received recent training from UK and US forces...

Interesting times

 

[Dercius]

I read a while ago, that the very big impact issue with the dam and its effect on water availabilty downstream depended on the rythm the Ethiopians decided to fill it up. If they decided to fill it the fast way, it was a casus belly for egypt as it meant losing around 70% of its agro production. If instead the ethiopians decided to fill it more slowly, the impact on egypt was far less severe.

The proplem I see, is that they are only throwing threats at the Ethiopians and no real incentive at all to proceed in a different way.

 

[Dercius]

And a number of units entirely dedicated to seccuring upstream assets that threaten the country's water supplies - which have received recent training from UK and US forces...

Interesting times

Time for Ethiopians to buy S-900 from the Russians ???

 

[morris]

And a number of units entirely dedicated to seccuring upstream assets that threaten the country's water supplies - which have received recent training from UK and US forces...

Interesting times

Egypt has ongoing problems in Sinai and getting involved in Libya is more then enough already.

 

[NebrHogger]

A new 'dam busters' event coming up here?

 

[muck]

I can see why the Ethiopians would not feel bound by colonial era treaties that didn't even consult them.

Maybe, but that argument's not going to shield them from their neighbours' wrath.

 

[TheKiwi]

Correct. But they too have been heavily investing in upgrading their military precisely because of Egyptian behavior about this. And given Egypt's previous military performances I wouldn't put a great deal of money on their ability to threaten the dam or Ethiopia.

 

[Royal]

Egypt has ongoing problems in Sinai and getting involved in Libya is more then enough already.

Sinai is a low-level insurgency that they've dealt with (badly) for decades and is really just a police action so doesn't tie down large numbers of front-line troops. Libya certainly has the potential to be more of an issue but the Nile is literally life and death for what's left of the country's economy - and even if you disagree with that statement the Egyptian state and military do not...

 

[Fluff]

I read a while ago, that the very big impact issue with the dam and its effect on water availabilty downstream depended on the rythm the Ethiopians decided to fill it up. If they decided to fill it the fast way, it was a casus belly for egypt as it meant losing around 70% of its agro production. If instead the ethiopians decided to fill it more slowly, the impact on egypt was far less severe.

The proplem I see, is that they are only throwing threats at the Ethiopians and no real incentive at all to proceed in a different way.

This is the issue.

In theory the dam is x size, once filled, the net flow has to be the same, so no difference to Egypt.

Ethiopia need to manage the level, as an energy reserve.

Logically what should have happened is that the electricity should be available to Egypt, that way Egypt can manage electrical demand, and thus water flow.

Doesn't look like the toughest problem to resolve to me.

Actually blowing up the dam is probably not a good idea, as if it were me, I would then dynamite the valley to block the flow for 6 months or so.

 

[morris]

once filled, the net flow has to be the same, so no difference to Egypt.

Not quiet so, there will be loss of water due to seepage and evaporation.

Another factor is Chinese investment in the project so African conflict potentially can grow into something bigger.

 

[ao_sepia]

like case, chinese built dam on klong river effect to asean, india built dam on river effect to paki.

 

[TheKiwi]

...Another factor is Chinese investment in the project so African conflict potentially can grow into something bigger.

It's mostly self financed. Chinese involvement is less than 25% of the cost of the dam.

 

[morris]

It's mostly self financed. Chinese involvement is less than 25% of the cost of the dam.

Communists love their money not less the capitalists.

 

[Mike1976]

Severe flooding in Sudan kills 99, caused by heavy rainfall in Ethiopia swelling the Nile.

Sudan declares state of emergency as record flooding kills 99 people

Floods caused by heavy seasonal rains have damaged more than 100,000 homes, says minister

www.theguardian.com