Politics The Fertility and birthrate issue

[Jake84]

This topic pops up on MSM every now and then. You might think it’s a good thing that the “peak” of the world population will be reached in ~2050 and then will decline “for the better” (environment, tribes, wars...) the reality is more complex than that...

Fertility rate: 'Jaw-dropping' global crash in children being born

Nearly every country will see their populations fall as the world has fewer babies.

www.bbc.com

 

[primer]

Aren't robots suppose to be doing all the work by then.

 

[Fluff]

 

[Fluff]

Aren't robots suppose to be doing all the work by then.

U think Robots wont have unions? Want kids? Holidays? As soon as they get smart its going to be bladerunner, indistinguishable from humans.

Pass the tinfoil when your done...

 

[primer]

I'm ticking the unemployed box, get a free cheque in the mail every week from the robots. I don't care what the migrants do after that.

 

[Fluff]

I'm ticking the unemployed box, get a free cheque in the mail every week from the robots. I don't care what the migrants do after that.

Theres probably a theory that 60 million people without needing to waste hours at work, would produce a lot of economic demand.......I think we just experimented with this theory...

 

[BravoZulu]

View attachment 238951

Really enjoyed this one

 

[TheKiwi]

The current state of Japan probably gives a pretty good indication of the issues that a sub-replacement birth rate and a highly skewed old/young population raise.

 

[BCNTM]

The current state of Japan probably gives a pretty good indication of the issues that a sub-replacement birth rate and a highly skewed old/young population raise.

you just need robot bum and dribble wipers - Japan lead the field

Covid reduced the number you need to look after - especially in the UK

 

[Fluff]

you just need robot bum and dribble wipers - Japan lead the field

What if you only have one 'eye' and its 'up or down detector' may get it wrong, if you follow me......

 

[Deleted member 11302]

There is anothers side to this, I have long pondered about. Yes, falling birth rates will propel further automation and development of autonomous machines in the manufacturing and service sectors.

But that might also leave an increasing number of people without employment while not neccessarily making them poorer (Governments stepping in, UBI etc.), so what will people do to have purpose in life? They might just start to breed again, I wouldn't discount such a development in the future, just like people would not believe that global population growth might plummet, but that is exactly what is beginning to happen in a lot of regions.

BTW, the role that increasing urbanisation plays in this, is largely overlooked and remains unnoticed by most policy makers.

 

[Fluff]

There is anothers side to this, I have long pondered about. Yes, falling birth rates will propel further automation and development of autonomous machines in the manufacturing and service sectors.

But that might also leave an increasing number of people without employment while not neccessarily making them poorer (Governments stepping in, UBI etc.), so what will people do to have purpose in life? They might just start to breed again, I wouldn't discount such a development in the future, just like people would not believe that global population growth might plummet, but that is exactly what is beginning to happen in a lot of regions.

BTW, the role that increasing urbanisation plays in this, is largely overlooked and remains unnoticed by most policy makers.

I'm not so sure on the what will we do=make babies

Japan seems to be going to a big group of people not forming 'families' With pensions etc its no longer necessary to do this. I would suggest no work will lead to several possibilites, more virtual living(ready player one) more volunteering - a 'shop' without staff costs would be interesting, or just vegitate and wait for the auto doc to arrive and fix you up.

 

[primer]

Unless you are invested in the automation there will be another gap widening. Logically once again the poor missed out. The argument is already afoot that we tax the rich. Or those that were wise enough to work hard save up and invest.

More time for recreations. Sports shops everywhere in my town. can't see that trend dying so long as they can continue to print no-interest money.

 

[Fluff]

Unless you are invested in the automation there will be another gap widening. Logically once again the poor missed out. The argument is already afoot that we tax the rich. Or those that were wise enough to work hard save up and invest.

More time for recreations. Sports shops everywhere in my town. can't see that trend dying so long as they can continue to print no-interest money.

If your referring to the super rich, I think the UK tried high taxation, and the conservatives came in, dropped the rates, and got more tax revenue - lower tax= more tax money....

The super rich will always find a haven, or a commodity that for one reason or another cant be taxed. Better so far to offer a 'fair' tax rate and let them pay - they still want cappuccinos, and a pool guy, cant get them on an island with just your uber rich family on it....

What is happening is that the cost of many things is coming down, from the sheer volume of production in China, and the accumulation of wealth across G20 etc

 

[primer]

Money hiding is harder, far harder, simply transfer large amounts requires an explanation, post Panama papers trusts have changed. The discusion has been to tax the benefciaries of domestic trusts.

The political climate is a long long way away from Maggie's days. All those assets they sold at below market value are now being bought back by retirement funds at a premium and a nice earner for the fund managers too.

There was no net benefit along the lines of our tourism industry was going to tip over when we spend more overseas. Now that excess spending is being spent on ski fields and they have never been so full. Alot of what these economists propose is pure rubbish in the face of obvious facts..

 

[Deleted member 11302]

Japan seems to be going to a big group of people not forming 'families' With pensions etc its no longer necessary to do this. I would suggest no work will lead to several possibilites, more virtual living(ready player one) more volunteering - a 'shop' without staff costs would be interesting, or just vegitate and wait for the auto doc to arrive and fix you up.

And Japan just so happens to be one of the most urbanised nations worldwide. Governments that want to promote higher birth rates would do well to pursue a policy of industrialising and developing rural areas and divert some funding away from big cities, making smaller country towns more attractive to young couples.

If you don't have to put up half your income to pay for a mediocre city flat (Situation in large parts of Ger.) you might just have the resources to pop out some fresh ones!

Of course I'm not saying that is all that has to happen in order to increase fertility, but it would certainly go a long way.

My 2 Cents