Not Poland, but the Polish government and the reasons are unclear.
Undoubtedly, people linked to Putin and Russia's special services helped PiS win the elections in 2015.
A group of waiters, cooperating with a Polish guy who has business and political links to Russia, installed eavesdropping devices under tables at a restaurant that was often attended by some major politicians belonging to the previous government. On some recordings, these politicians were talking some random sh1t and despised the lifestyle of common people. As PiS has always portrayed itself as the defender of the poor, unsuccessful and uneducated people, it used these recordings to present the democratic opposition as a group who lives out of the touch with reality and does not care of common people.
Warsaw requested an explanation from the French ambassador over comments made by the French president. The French president strongly criticized Poland's Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki in a newspaper interview.
Well, I don't like Morawiecki, as he is a show-ff, a liar and his business activity is dodgy to say it gently.
Before becoming a PM, he signed over something like 95% of his multiple properties, land and assets to his wife and family to hide the fact that he is a millionaire. You know, a minister has to reveal their fixed assets, but their wives/husbands don't. As being too rich is not something PiS voters like, so it's better to hide it.
However, he made a point, as calling Putin for so many times before the war was simply pointless. It's like a puma calling a lion in order to convince it that devouring a zebra would not be a good idea. Would calling the lion 10 or 20 times help? No, as it would not give a sh1t about someone's opinion.
Putin simply loves if someone begs him not to do something. He enjoys such calls, as he feels important and has the opportunity for saying "no" as many times as he wishes.
I'm curious what will happen in the second round. I forecasted Le Pen benefitting from the focus of the campaign on Zemmour.
According to some polls, one third of Melenchon voters could vote le Pen. LFI voters don't really buy the democracy thing, they are violent activists. Vote for Macron will be marginal and Melenchon only said no vote should go to le Pen...
I predict a huge abstention. Few people voted for Macron enthusiastically.
It will be close if Macron takes it.
EDIT: but in reality Melenchon is not at 20%. Some troubled left-wingers thought it would be clever to vote "useful" and eliminate le Pen.
Real fascist Melenchon voters are probaby around 9%. The rest might vote Macron.
Not that curious to see what a Lepen presidency would look like.
Mélenchon called for his followers to "not give a single vote to Lepen", though polls suggest around a third of his base would vote Lepen if a second Macron-v-Lepen would occur (which it did).
What we can take solace in, though, is the scenarios for the losers:
-if Macron loses; his party cease to exist. It is basically built around him.
-Mélenchon will be too old for the next presidential elections. Technically, it's over for him.
-if she loses, Marine said she would not represent herself ever.
But the most concerning thing, at least I view that as concerning, are the numbers behind the percentages.
Macron got 27,6% of the votes and Lepen 23,4%. Ok.
But number of votes wise, Macron only got 9mil (9 560 545).
Out of 47mil registered to vote, only 35mil voted.
Of the 35mil who voted, 540k voted blank.
Nothing prevented any candidate from proposing a broader vision of what they wanted to do or what they stood for instead of proposing a couple of euros here and there.
It' s neither his fault neither to his credit that traditional parties (although Marine le Pen's RN would count as that) have autodestructed through petty promises without a vision, simple day to day "no waves" management of their mandates, or shallowness of thoughts. Not to mention unmoveable and returning dinosaurs in charge behind the candidate.
On the other hand, people have substantially radicalized. Especially younger voters, most not voting, then voting for Melenchon who proposes a confrontation with present settings, or le Pen that attracts many young actives and is also a disruptive program.
Many older folks, boomers, voted for Macron who seems to represent a non confrontational approach of problems...for people who don' t have many problems.
The only thing that appeals right now are disruptive programs. I am worried for the second round because I think le Pen has a real shot.
French political parties do have their grassroots voting base.
But it seems the people are getting more and more disillusioned when it comes to politicians and political parties.
Trust in institutions is at the lowest, trust in the "government" is at the same level and I think what occurred during the Macron's presidency added another nail to, an already extensively nailed, coffin.
But it is not just Macron's fault, nor "all this" occurred under Macron; it is simply a gradual accumulation from all the past presidency.
French far-right leader Marine Le Pen on Wednesday backed closer ties between NATO and Russia, adding that if she won the presidency Paris would once again leave the military command of the US-led alliance.
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