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“We have received notifications from several countries with close ties to Russia that their representatives will be in Moscow [on May 9]. A strange desire, these days. WE DO NOT RECOMMEND IT.”

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Bring out the guillotine.
 
*BREAKING NEWS:* Ukrainian Defense Forces struck a Russian naval base in Kaspiysk, Dagestan, hitting a *Project 22800 "Karakurt" missile ship* capable of launching Kalibr cruise missiles. The attack also targeted enemy control points in Sosnivka (Luhansk) and Yasnaya (Donetsk).

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There is so much EW and AD being redeployed to what already was by far the most dense area in the country that nothing substantial can be achieved by drones imo or even missiles. Any attack with material succes would need to be carried out through more inventive meand. Getting the sirens to sound during the parade would be an embarrassment, but no one outside of Moscow would hear it because of a delayed broadcast and audio filtering.

The redeployment of assets leaves the rest of the country even more exposed to attack than it already was. I'd generously offer a truce from 8-10 May in the Moscow Oblast. And bomb everywhere else.

No matter how dense and layered an AD and EW is, they interception rate is never 100%.

There will always be at least one that goes through, and that's all you need.
And as you posted, a big logistic hub got hit in Moscow, despite the up-tiered bubble. It can happen.

Now, if anything outside Moscow is hit during the 8-10 May period, as long as it isn't a parade the response from Russia won't be significant and/or worth remembering.
If a ceremony is targeted and hit though... that's something else.



*apparently I am supposed to know why my post are being deleted?
*fairly confident I am having a reasonable and civil exchange with someone else...
 
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The Revolution Humiliation will not be broadcast live.

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The Revolution Humiliation will not be broadcast live.

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It takes time to censor 😁
 
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Footage of the new Russian heavy-duty FPV drone "Provod" striking an abandoned Ukrainian Roshel Senator APC armored vehicle. The Roshel armored vehicle is equipped with numerous electronic warfare systems, but they are not resistant to strikes by fiber-optic-guided drones. Roshel Senator armored vehicles have been manufactured in Canada since 2018.

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Greek authorities discovered a Ukrainian military naval drone, the Magura V3, off the coast of the island of Lefkada in the Ionian Sea. Local fishermen spotted the drone, its engine still running. The fishermen towed the drone to port and handed it over to the Greek Coast Guard. A preliminary examination revealed that the drone was equipped with detonators but did not contain any explosives. It's worth noting that the drone could not have come from the Black Sea, as it would have been detained by Turkish authorities. It can be assumed that Ukrainian naval drones are launched in the Mediterranean from unknown ships.

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"What was supposed to be one of Russia’s greatest symbolic victories is starting to look far less secure. Reports tied to Azov-linked patrols and long-range drone activity near Mariupol suggest Ukraine is capable of projecting pressure deep into occupied territory—roughly 160 kilometers from the active front. That changes the psychological map of the war. Mariupol was meant to symbolize permanence, conquest, and inevitability. Instead, it increasingly highlights Russia’s vulnerability, the strain on rear-area security, and the reality that Ukraine can still challenge Moscow far behind the lines. Even limited operations in or around Mariupol force Russia to divert attention, manpower, and resources toward territory it once assumed was fully locked down." - Professor Gerdes

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"This year's Victory Parade in Moscow is taking place under heavy security and growing concerns over possible drone threats. Reports suggest Russia has concentrated major air defense assets around the capital, while parades in several other regions have been scaled back or canceled.As tensions rise ahead of May 9, questions are growing about Russia's ability to protect both Moscow and key infrastructure across the country.In a new episode of Break The Fake, Jonasz Rewiński looks at the security measures, the political symbolism and why this year's parade in Moscow feels very different."

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