Indeed, Trump’s style is baffling.
But if you look beyond his bombastic proclamations at the reality of the situation, you have , in my opinion, quite a different picture. It is a waiting game, the winner is the one who outlasts their opponent. And in that respect, the most decisive element, the US blockade is still in place and effectively (and ruthlessly ) enforced. Whatever the mullahs say, their situation can but continue deteriorate sharply. Their best hope is holding till the Midterm elections, hoping to see a Democrat victory that will force an inversion of the current policy.
The present situation is, in my opinion, weirdly reminiscent of that of the summer of 1864. At that time, the Democrat ( !) party’s candidate was leading the incumbent Republican, Abraham Lincoln, with a peace program built from the war weariness of the Northern masses. And then, on July 22nd, Sherman took Atlanta, and instantly, the tables were turned and Lincoln gained the advantage over his opponent.
I’m not saying the situations are similar, and that an Atlanta style victory will happen to save Trump’s position. But the onus of changing the situation rests firmly on the mullahs’ shoulders : in the end, they will have to have the blockade lifted. They have been proved incapable of doing so through military means, can they wait till political attrition gives them the day ?