Politics German Politics & News

[Musashi]

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[muck]

Snap elections next?

Already set, there's no realistic way around it. January 15 he'll lose the confidence of the Diet, after which a new Diet has to be elected within 60 days. Unless the Federal President refuses to pronounce the Diet dissolved, which he could technically do, but what would be an unprecedented breach of non-written constitutional practice.

It takes at least four-to-six weeks to prepare a generation, so we're looking at a date in March here. Probably the second half of March, as the first week of that month is Fasching (carnival) and everyone's too drunk to vote.

The next Chancellor will be CDU's Friedrich Merz, who has a conservative and straight-forward agenda.
But he won't be able to govern alone, and much of what he can do will depend on his coalition partner.

 

[muck]

Woah. Lindner just tore into Scholz big time on national television: "The Chancellor had demanded that I break my oath of office to uphold the law and protect the German people from harm, and he fired me because I wouldn't oblige."

Man, that election campaign is going to hit American levels of nastiness.

 

[muck]

Man, this getting better and better.

Scholz about Lindner: "In order to avert harm from Germany, I had to ask the President to dismiss him. Mr. Lindner has violated my trust time and time again. He is narrow-minded and only cares about the good of his own party. He is unwilling to compromise. I could not tolerate him bothering Germany with this reckless behaviour any further."

Lindner now claims that Scholz, meaning to create a debt-funded stimulus package, demanded that he violate the constitutional debt ceiling clause which may only be ignored in times of emergency. Lindner says that he told Scholz that he can't do this and that there are other means to improve the economy, like lowering taxes and welfare payouts, which Scholz refused to consider.

This is quite unprecedented.

 

[muck]

The meltdown continues: One Liberal minister (Volker Wissing, Minister of Transport and Infrastructure) has rebelled against his party leaving the coalition and accepted an invitation from Scholz to remain in office. Wissing claims he is acting out of a sense of duty, but there's no duty to be fulfilled anymore, as all his undersecretaries-of-state have resigned in protest, calling him a coward and leaving him unable to lead his ministry.

I'm sure Wissing's sense of duty isn't motivated at all by the fact that he won't get his 220k p.a. pension unless he's served out a full four-year term … Why would I even suspect him of so base a motive?

CDU's Merz has just said there won't be any deals with Scholz and he demands a vote of confidence immediately.

It'll be sooner than March.

 

[muck]

Oh boy, this getting better by the hour.

Trying to get him to stand down, Merz just returned from a meeting with Scholz fuming. Merz says that Scholz told him he can't stand down now because no-one is as well-read in current affairs as him, and that we can't have elections in 2024 to ensure that everyone in the federation* has a nice, relaxed Christmas and New Year's Eve.

*) He used the word Bund in German, think of it as "everyone in Whitehall" or "everyone on the Hill".

It's raw, festering, unadulterated autism.

On another note, have you noticed how in times of crisis (actual or perceived) voters tend to gravitate to tall men? Compare Harris to Trump, or in this case: Scholz is 1.7 metres, Merz stands 2 metres tall, as does his co-chief (the Bavarian prime minister).

 

[Musashi]

But he won't be able to govern alone, and much of what he can do will depend on his coalition partner.

So, who would be his coalition partner?

Since the last elections, the FDP has lost over 66% of its voters, and it may not enter the future German parliament. That usually happens when you enter a coalition with parties that have nothing in common with you. They fulfil their promises at your expense, and you cannot fulfil yours because they don't agree with you.

FDP is against borrowing more money, while Germany is supposed to start spending more money on its military.
Ol' Drumpf won't be messing around this time. He may strike a deal with Putin or withdraw U.S. troops from Europe, making it defenceless against RuZZia.

I don't think spending more money on the military will be popular in the next German parliament. The CDU may support it, but all the possible coalition partners will oppose it.

 

[muck]

The Greens would support increased military spending (though not conscription). As a matter of fact, they were the driving force between that €100 billion cash injection, and they also have been the most steadfast supporters of military aid to Ukraine.

It's the Reds who wouldn't play ball. On Ukraine and military spending, even Scholz is an outsider in his own party.

/edit
Current polls suggest 66% of the electorate want immediate general elections.

 

[muck]

The meltdown continues. Scholz has just said that he's willing to talk about snap elections at an earlier date.

 

[muck]

@Musashi, you're gonna love this.

Today is the 34th anniversary of the peaceful revolution in East Germany. German President Frank-Walther Steinmeier – a Social Democrat and leading proponent of the Moscow connection – was hosting a ceremony at his residence; the opening speech was given by Saxonian poet Marko Martin. But it didn't turn out at all like Steinmeier expected.

Martin tore right into Steinmeier and his Social Democrats, accusing them of always having been wrong about Russia; he explicitely cited the instance in 1982 when SPD refused to back Poland's Solidarnosc and even called them a threat for world peace.

He also mentioned Steinmeier multiple times by name and reminded him of how wrong he'd been to trust Putin.

Steinmeier was visibly fuming, grinding his teeth and refusing to applaud. The minute the speech was ended, the great statesman ran towards the podium, accused Martin of libel and embarked on a whiny tirade like "you have no idea how difficult it is to be politician" and "you don't know anything about what I tried to achieve through backroom channels", et cetera.

 

[Mike1976]

@Musashi, you're gonna love this.

Today is the 34th anniversary of the peaceful revolution in East Germany. German President Frank-Walther Steinmeier – a Social Democrat and leading proponent of the Moscow connection – was hosting a ceremony at his residence; the opening speech was given by Saxonian poet Marko Martin. But it didn't turn out at all like Steinmeier expected.

Martin tore right into Steinmeier and his Social Democrats, accusing them of always having been wrong about Russia; he explicitely cited the instance in 1982 when SPD refused to back Poland's Solidarnosc and even called them a threat for world peace.

He also mentioned Steinmeier multiple times by name and reminded him of how wrong he'd been to trust Putin.

Steinmeier was visibly fuming, grinding his teeth and refusing to applaud. The minute the speech was ended, the great statesman ran towards the podium, accused Martin of libel and embarked on a whiny tirade like "you have no idea how difficult it is to be politician" and "you don't know anything about what I tried to achieve through backroom channels", et cetera.

It's always everyone elses fault and never their own. Politicians are the same the world over.

 

[muck]

Germany will go to the polls on February 23.

 

[Jake84]

Germany will go to the polls on February 23.

The tall guy is expected to be chancellor but seriously isn’t it likely going to be the odd situation France was just last summer?

A recap: right wing majority but due to not wanting a coalition with the « far right » the conservatives get cucked by the left, and the country becomes ungovernable.

 

[muck]

right wing majority but due to not wanting a coalition with the « far right » the conservatives get cucked by the left, and the country becomes ungovernable.

I don't think so. Don't forget Germany is not a semi-presidential but a parliamentary republic. No one decides who gets and doesn't get a shot. Sure, Merz will have to make concessions, but I can't imagine an outcome where the country would become ungovernable or current political realities be virtually negated.

AfD isn't anything like RN. Le Pen's people could form a functioning and somewhat responsible government, AfD can't. Half their MPs are QAnon types who only ever obstruct in parliament and spend their leisure time peddling snake oil on Telegram. They'll never come close to winning even a relative majority. And ironically, polls frequently show a large chunk of AfD's own voters don't want them to govern either. I have no idea why that is, perhaps they dislike the idea of compromising.

But compromising is the norm around here. The only time a German party ever won an absolute majority on the federal level, they formed a coalition government regardless. Everyone is somewhat used to working together. And it's also accepted practice for the junior coalition partner to exercise the more restraint the smaller they are. It is unfortunately very likely that either the Social Democrats or the Greens will be part of the next administration, but their footprint in it is going to be much smaller compared to the outgoing administration or its predecessor.

The left side of the aisle will not even have a relative majority in February. They'll be very aware of that, and they're going to be afraid that if they refuse to play ball, Merz will ignore the cordon sanitaire towards AfD. The thing is, he's said that he won't; but the left-leaning media have been suggesting for months that Merz might be secretly right-wing or power-hungry enough to go back on his word. So, there is a Sword of Damocles of their own making dangling over their heads.

What the media will do, however, is tearing into Merz so as to cost him as many votes as possible, which would make his prospective coalition partner more influential (see above). They'd been somewhat restrained until the fall of the Scholz administration (whom they also hated); but the kids' gloves will come off now. He is an "old white man", a banker who flies his own private jet, and his voting record as an MP leaves a lot for them to whinge about. (For some bizarre reason, Merz once voted against criminalising marital rape. That'll come back to haunt him.)

But frankly, I'm cautiously optimistic. He'll do a better job than Scholz and Merkel, I think. (I know, talking about low bars …)

 

[Musashi]

The End of the Zeitenwende | DGAP

This personal assessment challenges whether Germany’s Zeitenwende has achieved its goals. While it reflects the author’s views, not necessarily the view of all members of DGAP’s Action Group Zeitenwende, the debate continues. In the coming weeks, DGAP’s magazine Internationale Politik Quarterly...

dgap.org

 

[muck]

@Musashi

On that note … This article appeared in conservative daily 'Frankfurter Allgemeine' a couple of weeks ago. The driving force against the Zeitenwende and behind the insanity that's been Germany's foreign policy for a good decade is the SPD's chief whip, Rolf Muetzenich. A man who now is rumoured fostering ambitions to become Foreign Minister in a potential Merz administration. Andrii Melnyk, former Ukrainian ambassador to Germany, tweeted last night: "If he becomes foreign minister, I'll shot myself in the head." He also called Muetzenich the "most callous" politician in Germany, and I think he's completely right.

Even political rivals think Rolf Muetzenich is a cordial man. You'd hardly notice how powerful this pacifist has become. Will the Social Democrat (SPD) chief whip force through his Russian policies as well?

Rolf Muetzenich leads the Chancellor through the ring like no other Social Democrat. He's able to do this because Olaf Scholz relies on no other Social Democrat as much as he does on Muetzenich. Because if Scholz's fraction doesn't play ball, the coalition will quickly come to an end.

Two and a half years ago, hardly anyone could have imagined that Muetzenich's position in his own party would be as strong as it is today. Russia's invasion of Ukraine called all that he'd stood for into question. The foreign policy expert had spent his entire life promoting pacifism and disarmament. That all came crashing down 24 February 2022.

Now, however, Muetzenich is making his mark on the SPD again. The fact that the German armed forces still have no armed drones despite the Zeitenwende? That's Muetzenich's work. Who decided when an agreement had to be reached in the budget dispute between the SPD, Greens and FDP and called the Chancellor to the parliamentary group for a report at 7 o'clock on a Sunday morning? Muetzenich. Who has spoken out in favour of a 'concerted action' on industrial policy in the Chancellor's Office? Muetzenich, too. And who was sending out invitation to that very summit hours later? Scholz.

"I'm a servant of this caucus." That's a typical Muetzenich. His influence is massive, he just doesn't look it. On the one hand, that's due to his style. He's a principled loner. One should absolutely take him serious. Moreover, he is a remarkably friendly man, as anyone in the political arena will admit. Even CDU leader Friedrich Merz will confess that they're on friendly terms.

On the other hand, Muetzenich is barely noticable because his current role just happened to him. When the former leader Andrea Nahles stepped down in June 2019, Muetzenich stepped in as an interim chief whip just by virtue of seniority among her deputies. Muetzenich doesn't go to talk shows or speaks to large crowds. But he's taken a liking to his new power.

He's been chief whip for five years now, he's popular with his MPs. Nevertheless the myth will not die that he's still a stranger to his role, uncomfortable about using his power. Nothing could be further from the truth.

Over the past few days, Muetzenich and his supporters calling for what they say is a "more nuanced approach to the Ukraine War" received a double boost. New party Secretary General Matthias Miersch has brought [former Chancellor] Gerhard Schroeder back to the fold in an interview. "He does have a place in SPD", Miersch told 'Stern' magazine, pointing to the fact a party commission had found no reasons to expell Schroeder, a notorious friend of Vladimir Putin and accused of damaging the party's reputation: "Even if I reject Schroeder's stance towards Putin, I can honour his life's work as a whole."

And then, the SPD and BSW in Brandenburg agreed on a resolution demanding more diplomatic efforts, claiming the war could not be ended by further arms deliveries. Both state caucuses also voiced their criticism of the planned stationing of medium-range missiles in Germany: "We need to get back to disarmament and arms control."

[Pro-Russian] BSW leader Sahra Wagenknecht praised the agreement. Nothing has been heard from the SPD leadership, which was probably informed in advance, even though the agreement sharply contradicts Scholz own's policies. After all, he'd presented the medium-range missiles as a boost to German security.

However, Brandenburg's comrades prefer to follow Muetzenich's approach rather than Scholz's. The chief whip didn't like the idea from the start, claiming it was increasing the risk of unwanted escalation. "I think the public debate about the far-reaching consequences of this decision is too short. I would like to point that out."

Some in the SPD caucus certainly see it that way. But their leader has decided not to bring them to the party line but feed their doubts. In the beginning, the cooperation between Scholz and Muetzenich had worked when the latter organised a clear majority for a defence spending boost despite being visibly opposed to it. It no longer works like that, though.

Defence Minister Boris Pistorius has to put up with being told by Muetzenich that he should "disarm rhetorically and bring down the heat". Pistorius is not a member of parliament, he's but an unwanted guest in the caucus and SPD MPs will tell him that to his face. It is no wonder, then, that MPs tell him to think security bigger than merely in military terms, a slap in the face for Pistorius who's been lobbying for a higher defence budget. No one in Muetzenich's party wants it.

In no other policy area has Muetzenich wielded as much influence as in his efforts to keep Germany's defence preparedness weak. For a decade, this pacifist from Cologne has fought against increases in military spending, buying modern arms and reducing the strategic dependence on Putin's increasingly authoritarian regime; first as a foreign policy expert and then as chief whip. Anyone who dared to criticise Putin got an earful from Muetzenich – like SPD Foreign Minister Heiko Maas, for whom it spelt the end of his career.

Above all, Muetzenich delayed the purchase of armed drones which now dominate the battlefield. CDU Defence Ministers Ursula von der Leyen and Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer both tried in vain to break this resistance. Although they had the SPD's own defence experts on their side, including Defence Committee chairman Fritz Felgentreu and Armed Forces Ombudsman Hans-Peter Bartels, and pulled all the stops in terms of political persuasion skills, Muetzenich retained the upper hand.

In the autumn of 2020, he proposed an international conference to ban drones. He categorically rejected an increase in the defence budget, which he said at the end of 2020 was like "dancing around the golden idol".

Four months before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Muetzenich accused Kramp-Karrenbauer of "escalating things". He didn't name Putin once. According to Muetzenich, the "order of the day" was now to "find some sort of agreement". Muetzenich also disparaged NATO's two percent spending goal as "absurd". In April 2021, he rejected the Greens' demand that Nord Stream 2 should not be completed as "unrivalled in hypocrisy".

Whilst thousands of armed drones are deployed in Ukraine every day, Germany still does not have a single armed drone; that's the work of Muetzenich and the SPD party left. Former party Secretary General Lars Klingbeil and then-Chancellor candidate Olaf Scholz did nothing to prevent this, nor did they say anything when Muetzenich used his power to force the resignation of [SPD] defence spending advocates Felgentreu, Bartels and Johannes Kars.

In their place, Muetzenich installed in Gabriela Heinrich and Eva Hoegl two women with no knowledge and no emotional attachment to the military. Heinrich, responsible for the party's foreign and defence policies, has hardly said a thing about these subjects since the War in Ukraine began. She left un-answered several requests for information as to if and when she'd ever visited an armed forces installation.

Felgentreu's successor Wolfgang Hellmich, a friendly older gentleman, has also not appeared in any public debate since the beginning of 2022. Among Hellmich's 27 press releases since the start of the war, not a single one deals with defence. Yet still Hellmich was chairman of the Defence Committee for a long time and, until a few days ago, defence policy spokesman for the SPD caucus.

When Scholz pushed through a €100 billion defence spending fund at the beginning of 2022, just in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Muetzenich secured a majority in the parliamentary group but also ensured that Wiebke Esdar, a politician who had never had anything to do with armaments and defence, became the head of the monitoring committee.

Although she is responsible for monitoring and supporting the expenditure of a unique fund, this commitment does not appear at all under the heading "My work in Berlin" on her website. Among dozens of photos, there is none showing the Social Democrat with soldiers. So far, she has had nothing to say about the Bundeswehr. Muetzenich's cadre policy in the guise of outward amiability has only failed once with Hoegl, who, as Armed Forces Ombudswoman, successfully freed herself from his shackles.

Heiko Maas was the last of those in the SPD who tried to oppose Muetzenich's pro-Russian course. The Foreign Minister from 2017 to 2021 was not only in favour of acquiring armed drones, he also opposed Muetzenich's push to withdraw from nuclear sharing in NATO. At the beginning of his term in office, Maas had tried to take a tougher line against Russia, which he called "increasingly hostile".

His stance towards Moscow drew the ire of Muetzenich and other party left-wingers. In autumn 2018, a board meeting turned into a showdown and Maas suffered a heavy defeat at the hands of Muetzenich, who was assisted by [fellow notorious pacifists] Ralf Stegner and Manuela Schwesig at the time. Muetzenich said that the minister failed to recognise that Russia was just beginning to change and that it was important to "seize the momentum". And Lars Klingbeil, General Secretary at the time, was quoted as saying that the SPD needed to "rediscover itself as a party of peace". Since then, Maas has kept a low profile, and in 2021 he also lost his office without leaving a trace.

Will all of this now be taken up again with the new Secretary General Miersch and through cooperation with the BSW? Muetzenich couldn't hide a smile when he recently noted in an interview that everyone was talking more about diplomacy as of late. (Source)

Muetzenich is without a doubt the most dangerous man in this country.
He's been categorically pro-Russian and living in pacifist utopias since the 1980's.

 

[Redav]

Putin and Scholz Plan First Phone Call in Almost Two Years

Russian President Vladimir Putin and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz plan to hold a phone call Friday, according to people familiar with the matter who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[muck]

Putin and Scholz Plan First Phone Call in Almost Two Years

Russian President Vladimir Putin and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz plan to hold a phone call Friday, according to people familiar with the matter who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

www.bloomberg.com

What a moron. Just an election campaigning stunt by a head of government without a government nor a majority in parliament.

 

[Musashi]

What a moron. Just an election campaigning stunt by a head of government without a government nor a majority in parliament.

The world’s bravest comedian is right this time.
Also, his Ukrainian is really good how for a guy who started learning Ukrainian 7 years ago:

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A Polish journalist wanted to interview him in Ukrainian in 2020, 1 year into his presidency, but the comedian was uncomfortable with that and asked him to have the interview in RuZZian.

4 years on and he’s very proficient, but he had already been proficient in 2022.

 

[muck]

Zelensky knows what Putin knows as well. Scholz doesn't have a majority in parliament. He has no authority to make demands or offer concessions.