@Musashi
You've overlooked
where Dietmar Woidke's gains came from. Compared to the last state elections, he gained (a measly) 143.000 votes, with 47.000 coming from the Greens, 25.000 coming from The Left and 20.000 coming from CDU as well as the Free Voters. (
Source)
The Greens and The Left strongly oppose Berlin's suspending of Schengen, so they most definitely didn't vote SPD because Olaf Scholz pretends to care about border security all of a sudden. And the Brandenburgian CDU and FV campaigned on a ticket of Germany virtually leaving Schengen, so their supporters had no reason to defect to an SPD which is paying lip service to the idea of border security.
The only voters whom one could suggest might've been swayed by that were the 51.000 people picked up by Woidke who'd not cast a vote in 2019. But I find that hard to believe, considering how Woidke had gone to great lengths not to be associated with Scholz or his party. Besides, Woidke lost votes to only two parties: AfD and BSW, both of which demand more border security as well.
Most German pundits say this was about staving off an AfD majority, and I do believe them.
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In other news, following their disastrous losses in several state elections, the Liberal party is rumoured to be discussing leaving the government of Scholz before November 14 (when 2025's budget is due). Scholz would be without a majority then. (
Source)
— — —
In other other news, CDU's new leader Friedrich Merz (likely Germany's next head of government) has given an interview to the country's biggest rag, 'Bild', outlining his plans if elected:
- moratorium on immigration
- lowering the age of criminal culpability
- modifying a juvenile penal code clause allowing 18-21-year olds to be tried as juveniles
- reducing bureaucracy, particularly the environmental mandates introduced by the incumbent government
- doubling down on supporting Ukraine
- enabling Ukrainian victory at least on the negotiating table; he doesn't think that Ukraine can win militarily in the strict sense of the word, but believes that Germany has to enable Ukraine to regain all her territories and stop Russia from further attacks
- breaking with the current government's "patronising" style of foreign affairs (literally: "we can't be exporters of democracy")
- taking on Muslim anti-Semitism in earnest
He also said that
- he won't enter a coalition with the Greens unless they abandon their current manifesto
- he loves America
- he doesn't know Kamala Harris personally and can't say how well he would get along with her
- BSW's communist-social conservative Sahra Wagenknecht is a liar and a demagogue
- he'll always stand by Israel, but admitted he'd rather see Benny Gantz as prime minister
- the political split between West and East Germans regarding matters like Ukraine is to be blamed on the socialist dictatorship past of that part of the country, and that whilst he understands where they're coming from he can't be swayed by it
- he expects to be attacked by the left for having worked for Blackrock, and won't apologise for being wealthy
(
Source)
Merz has mellowed over the years; he was actually a member of the right-wing of the pre-Merkel-CDU, going so far as to vote against criminalising rape in marriage (you better believe the media will make him pay for that).
Right now, he sort of represents what CDU mainstream used to be before Merkel.
He'd make a good Chancellor, I think, and I do believe he's trustworthy. He's literally the only notable pre-Merkel CDU guy to never bow to her. Faced with the option to either end a promising career or change his tune, he told her to F*** off.
But even though the polls have been looking good for like over a year now, Merz will have to do some heavy lifting still. I think this is going to be the nastiest election campaign season ever, and evidently Merz thinks that too, because it is common practice in German politics to nominate candidates only a couple of months in advance. For them to have nominated Merz a year in advance is obviously designed to bait Scholz and the media into slinging all their mud now, so that there's still enough time to wash it off.
One thing is certain, though: If Scholz's party sees reason, pulls a Biden and replaces him as their candidate with Germany's highly popular minister of Defence, Boris Pistorius, Merz would be going down. Strategically speaking, he has many weaknesses. Merz is not seen as likable; he's wealthy and pilots his own plane, making him anathema to the entire left; the East Germans dislike him for his pro-American stance.
As if that wasn't enough, his coalition options are looking pretty bleak, and he'll probably be punished for them by voters who'd vote for him but dislike his options. Realistically speaking, it's looking to be either CDU plus Greens or CDU plus SPD (sans Scholz) right now. And it's difficult to say which would be the lesser of the two evils. CDU plus Greens would be better for trade, the state budget (fewer social welfare excesses), the military and Ukraine. CDU plus SPD would be better for conventional industries and would probably be tougher on immigration and crime.
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In a virtually unprecedented coincidence, Germany's leading conservative and progressive media '
Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung' and '
Der Spiegel' have both called for the entire government to step down and make way for new elections.
f***ing hell. As things stand right now, Scholz has either to stage a coup or learn to walk on water to survive this legislative period.
www.euronews.com
www.politico.eu
m.jpost.com
evertiq.com
