That's the way it looks to me too. Don't forget that the USSR would also have been mounting an invasion in the north of Japan which was also likely to be a bloody affair as the location was well out of range of proper fighter cover and so the Kamikaze's would have had a field day.
I'm not a big believer in that whole "human waves" thing, especially not late in the war circa 1944-1945. Most of that was just German's complaining about being outnumbered. By 1945 the USSR were the masters of the large scale combined operations attack. They had no need for "human waves" when taking Manchuria in just two weeks.
I'm not a big believer in that whole "human waves" thing, especially not late in the war circa 1944-1945. Most of that was just German's complaining about being outnumbered. By 1945 the USSR were the masters of the large scale combined operations attack. They had no need for "human waves" when taking Manchuria in just two weeks.
I agree
On the other hand, soviet naval supply capabilities and sea borne/amphibious capabilities were minimal
Seizing Kurils and Sakhaline was already based on a bunch of merchant and fishing trailers/ships
What was in soviet advantage is that Hokkaido was poorly defended in comparison with Honshu and Kyushu
Back to Coronet and Olympics, i don't know if i buy the 350 000 -500 000 KIA projected by US analysts
Largest and most efficient imperial japanese armies were disintegrated in Manchuria by the soviet.
Most imperial navy land units were lost during Southern campaign around Okinawa
What was left for the mainland were reserve/militias and second tier units with light equipment, almost no fuel, no armor, very few artillery and a limited supply of ammo
It makes a bunch of manpower but with very poor fighting capabilities, especially in front of modern firepower
Based on casualty rates for Manilla and Okinawa, allied casualties of 350,000 are not unrealistic. Note that's casualties as opposed to fatalities.
The Japanese had a very good idea where the allies would land - entirely correct in fact - and were working to fortify those sectors in much the same manner as Okinawa was.
Based on casualty rates for Manilla and Okinawa, allied casualties of 350,000 are not unrealistic. Note that's casualties as opposed to fatalities.
The Japanese had a very good idea where the allies would land - entirely correct in fact - and were working to fortify those sectors in much the same manner as Okinawa was.
I can buy the 300 000 casualties number
However there were projection of 300 to 500K fatalities or even worse (didn't the US produced 1 million of body bags or is it a urban legend ?) which seems as bit overpessimistic
Based on Okinawa and Manilla death to wounded ratio (1 to 6 IIRC), it would have meant 1,8 to 3 millions of casualties
The US produced 500,000 or so Purple Hearts. Which was an anticipation of about that many wounded and killed. I believe that every single Purple Heart awarded since 1945 has come from that stockpile which shows no sign of running out.
I know I have the Downfall book, but I just cannot seem to find it. I think I loaned it out and it never came back!
Anyhow, my thoughts about the casualties are that the Allies were naturally looking for anything which would decrease the death count for their troops. And when I say naturally looking, I meant REALLY looking for ANY way to stop the carnage. After the bloodbaths in the Pacific island hoping campaigns, the attrocities committed by the Japanese during their occupations, and the madness of kamikaze; the nobility of more men dying for the right side was NOT a popular senteiment on the average citizen's mind back at the home countries. The calculus of actually using the special weapons available from Los Alamos work is more obvious if you put "NO MORE DEAD ALLIES" on line one of the pros and cons list.
It also needs to be remembered that Japan was divided into many military districts, rural and towns, cities etc.. etc.. in which the civilian communities were being actively trained to resist the invader by some very crude methods human kamikazes, bomb on a stick, iron poles to be wedged in tank tracks, their version of the Molotov cocktail, Japanese propaganda units were actively encouraging the population to resit to the death as the invader would take no prisoners, women would be mass-raped and children would be eaten by the invader. In my opinion an invasion would easily have accrued the casualties estimated.
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